With training camps now in the rear view mirror, we have a better idea of how depth charts will shake out and how touches will be apportioned. However, in the case of the Buffalo Bills backfield, the ADPs haven’t caught up to reality. Let’s use PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats and metrics to dissect the situation and demonstrate why we should be fading Devin Singletary in fantasy football in favor of Zack Moss.
Contextualizing the 2019 Season
En route to a surprising 10-6 finish and Wild Card berth in the 2019 NFL season, the Bills averaged 29.1 (No. 6) team run plays per game. This ground-heavy attack provided opportunity aplenty for Devin Singletary, Frank Gore, and Josh Allen, each of whom eclipsed 500 yards on the ground. Though it was Gore who finished the season with the most total carries, it was Singletary who enjoyed the larger Snap Share down the stretch. That momentum, as well as a strong playoff performance, has Singletary being drafted in the middle rounds of fantasy draft.
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In spite of his strong efficiency numbers, including 4.9 (No. 5 among qualified running backs) True Yards per Carry and a 7.3-percent (No. 3) Breakaway Run Rate, Singletary was only able to average 12.3 (No. 28) Fantasy Points per Game. Why? Let’s take a look at how he and Gore were deployed.
Buffalo Bills 2019 RB Usage
Singletary out-touched Gore on a per game basis. However, when it was time to punch it in the end zone, Gore earned 11 (No. 8) goal line carries to Singletary’s one (No. 62). Gore proved ineffective in that role, which prompted the Bills to let him enter free agency and draft Zack Moss in the third round of the NFL Draft.
Comparing Athletic Profiles
While no one will confuse Zack Moss with the athletic marvels of the running back position, he compares favorably to Devin Singletary in a number of ways. At 5-9 and 223-pounds, Moss is better suited for a workhorse role than his 5-7, 203-pound counterpart. Likewise, Moss’s 95.4 (46th-percentile) Speed Score is superior to Singletary’s 86.1 (15th-percentile) mark. That advantage doesn’t even account for the fact that Moss’s 4.66 (28th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash was hampered by a tweaked hamstring, according to Adam Schefter.
Zack Moss Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Based on his athletic profile and reports from training camp, we can confidently project that Moss will capture the same role as Frank Gore, but what if there’s room for more?
Unspoken Upside
Part of the reason that Zack Moss has more fantasy football upside than advertised is due to his proficiency in the passing game. The 2019 PAC-12 Offensive Player of the Year captured a 9.0-percent (68th-percentile) Target Share in his senior season, catching 28 passes on 29 targets. Singletary, on the other hand, finished with a 69.0-percent (No. 38) Catch Rate in his rookie season in the NFL. The main reason Frank Gore was so ineffective last year is because he was a dead giveaway for a run play, facing an average of 7.3 (No. 2) Defenders in the Box. Moss’ ability as a receiver will help the Bills better hide play calls from opposing defenses and will lead to a larger Snap Share as a result.
Check out Zack Moss’ 2020 Projection on PlayerProfiler’s “World Famous” Draft Kit:
In addition to the probability that Moss gets most of the receptions, there’s also the fact that Singletary may have a short leash with fumbling issues. He finished with the highest fumble rate at the running back position in the 2019 season, and reports of continued fumbling issues at Bills training camp indicate that the problem may persist in 2020. Moss already appears to have a significant role heading into the season. There’s a strong chance he assumes lead back duties early in 2020.
Conclusion
The Bills enjoyed an average +0.24 (No. 8) Game Script in 2019. With the addition of Stefon Diggs on offense and a defense that will continue to rank among the league’s best, the Bills should operate out of even more positive Game Scripts in 2020. Avoid the trap of Singletary’s empty-calorie carries, draft Moss two rounds later, and watch him take over the backfield.
