Week 9 MNF Showdown: Ravens vs Saints

DFS

The Ravens are heading to the bayou to face the Saints for Monday Night’s game. Despite injuries to literally every offensive skill position besides quarterback, the Ravens remain slight road favorites. Alvin Kamara is coming off a breakout three-touchdown rumbling and will look to help lead his team to an upset win. Without further ado, here is the Week 9 MNF Showdown between the Ravens and Saints!

Ravens vs Saints Odds:
Ravens -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-112/108)
Moneyline Ravens -122/Saints +104

The Ravens

Lamar Jackson has been resilient despite his teammates falling like flies. No. 1 wide receiver Rashod Bateman (foot) and No. 1 running back J.K. Dobbins (knee) are both shelved on Injured Reserve. Despite missing these key cogs, the game still boasts the No. 4 highest game total (47.5) for Week 9’s slate of games. The confidence in Jackson to maintain the offense is warranted as he’s notched five top-10 QB weeks despite the team’s injury woes. Jackson’s league-leading 25.7-percent Rushing Share and 553 Rushing Yards (most amongst qualified quarterbacks) proves he can carry his team and yours.

Rushing and Receiving

With Dobbins sidelined, the Ravens have deployed a patchwork RBBC led by Gus Edwards. Edwards has looked good in limited action but is listed as doubtful with a lingering hamstring injury. With Edwards unlikely to suit up, Kenyan Drake will see an expanded role with Justice Hill entering the mix as well. This is a situation to mostly avoid.

The receiver room is looking equally grim following the Bateman injury. Demarcus Robinson, Devin Duvernay, and James Proche will deploy as the team’s top receivers. Robinson’s role immediately expanded following Bateman’s departure. Robinson’s Week 8 23.5-percent Target Share, while a small sample, is radar-worthy. I expect Devin Duvernay to get more involved too with a week to game-plan around the situation. 35-year-old DeSean Jackson is being elevated from the practice squad but hasn’t caught an NFL pass since January. While the Saints do allow the No. 6 most Receptions (13 per game) and Receiving Yards (172 per game) to opponent receivers, the spot would be more appealing with better options.

With Mark Andrews listed as doubtful, preseason darling Isaiah Likely will be thrust into a significant role as the team’s top tight end. If he’s able to sniff Andrew’s elite 89-percent Snap Share, he’ll make for a strong play. Likely is coming off his best game to date while recording season highs in Targets, Receiving Yards, and his first score as a pro.  Consider him a strong TE2 with the ceiling for more.

The Saints

Injury-replacement turned starter, Andy Dalton continues to get the nod for the Saints. Dalton has recorded three starts outside the top 20 with one outlier top-two game coming via the shootout against the Cardinals. I’m more comfortable expecting Dalton to perform outside the top 20 but the matchup is intriguing. The Ravens’ defense has been generous to opposing quarterbacks by allowing the No. 2 most Pass Completions, No. 2 most Pass Attempts, and No. 3 most Passing Yards per game.

Rushing and Receiving

Kamara has come on lately, recording top-10 RB performances in three of his last four games. Last week’s triple touchdown outburst broke the seal after being held scoreless to begin the year. Kamara’s league-leading 24.8-percent Target Share keeps him in the RB1 conversation week after week. The Ravens are allowing the No. 8 most fantasy points to opposing rushers (18.8 fantasy points per game average.)

With Michael Thomas now deactivated with a season-ending toe injury, Chris Olave becomes the unquestioned alpha receiver for New Orleans. The rookie’s numbers have impressed. His ten Targets per game, 506 Receiving Yards, and 153 Air Yards per game all rank inside the top 10 at the position. I like him as a rest-of-season WR1, especially in this spot as home dogs. Jarvis Landry looks like he could return (ankle) but hasn’t cleared 25 Receiving Yards since Week 1. Taysom Hill is in play as a lottery ticket one-game DFS flex based on his touchdown upside.

Score Prediction: Ravens 24 Saints 21