Week 15 MNF Showdown: Rams vs Packers

DFS

Welcome to the Week 15 MNF Showdown! Baker Mayfield and the Rams head to the tundra at Lambeau to face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Rams will look to keep the good times rolling after an improbable buzzer beater upset over the Raiders a short week ago. The Packers are coming off a bye as touchdown home favorites and will be well rested. Despite losing critical playmakers, I like the Rams to keep it close. Without further ado, let’s dig in for Week 15’s MNF Showdown!

Rams vs Packers Odds:
Packers -7 (-108) |
Over/Under 39.5 (-112/108) |
Moneyline Packers -320/Rams +260 |

The Rams

Panthers/Browns castaway, Baker Mayfield, showed out in dramatic fashion in his Rams debut. Having less than a week to prepare, Mayfield looked surprisingly poised against a decent Raiders front. This week’s opponent will pose another test as Green Bay ranks No. 2 or better in Pass Attempts, Completions, and Pass Yards allowed. If the Rams have a chance at a consecutive upset win, I question if it comes via Mayfield. He’s a low-end QB2 in a tough matchup while the Rams are touchdown road underdogs.

Rushing and Receiving

With Darrell Henderson out of the picture, Cam Akers has reclaimed his role as the top running back for the Rams. In Week 14’s stunning win, Akers toted the rock a team-high twelve times for 42 yards and a score. Akers profiles as the logical centerpiece in this matchup with the Packers. While the Packers are strong versus quarterbacks, they are equally as weak against opponent running backs. The Packers are allowing a mouth-watering 24.7/123.6/.77 stat line on average to opposing backs. I’m taking a stand with Akers this week to post season-high numbers in a dream matchup against the Packers.

With Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Allen Robinson‘s (foot) seasons lost to I.R., the Rams have deployed a true WRBC approach. Tutu Atwell, Ben Skowronek, and Van Jefferson have seen the bulk of the vacated looks with Target Shares all within one percentage point of each other (17,17,18). I’m most interested in Skowronek and his chain-moving role, especially in PPR leagues. Atwell and Jefferson are risky touchdown-hunting WR3/4s in an imposing environment. In five games without Matthew Stafford, Tyler Higbee has averaged a disappointing 2.4 Receptions per game.

The Packers

Aaron Rodgers’s last game action was in Week 13’s owning of the division-rival Bears. The veteran quarterback did just enough that was needed to cement the win, finishing as QB25 with one Passing Touchdown. Because of the team’s focus on the ground game, Rodgers is QB18 without a single top-ten finish. Off a bye, I’m treating Rodgers as a solid QB2 facing a Rams defensive front ranked No. 20 in Passing Yards Allowed.

Rushing and Receiving

Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon form the “Thunder and Lightning” running back tandem for the Packers. In Week 13’s statement win over the Bears, Dillon was the focus, wearing down the defense with 18 Carries and a score. I’d prefer Dillon over Jones in games facing soft rush defenses but the Rams are not that team. The Rams’ defense ranks No. 18 in Rush Attempts Allowed and No. 9 in Rush Yards Allowed. Expect Jones to be used more as an extension of the run game with some quick Rodgers dump-offs. Jones is the RB8 in PPR leagues.

Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson will take the field together for the first time all season. Watson has been the hot hand lately. He’s strung together four straight games with a touchdown reception. Watson remains in play here as a ceiling WR2/3 given his recent touchdown outbursts. Since Week 10, Watson’s impressive 26-percent Target Share leads the team. During Watson’s ascension, Lazard has taken a back seat with four straight games as WR34 or worse finishes. I’m bearish on Doubs as well given the uncertainty around his playing time in his return from injury (ankle). The Rams have allowed the No. 4 fewest Receptions to opposing tight ends while Robert Tonyan hasn’t topped three Receptions since Week 8.

Score Prediction: Rams 17 Packers 20