Welcome back to this week’s installment of GPP QB-WR stack recommendations. As we enter the second half of the regular season, we have a reliable pool of advanced stats and metrics here at PlayerProfiler to aid in our quest. This article serves to provide analytically driven recommendations for quarterback and wide receivers on the same NFL team to combine in a stack for daily fantasy football tournaments. We want to leverage the correlation between the scoring of a QB and his receivers to double dip on big plays creating high upside lineups in the process.
Week 8 Review
The headliner stack last week consisted of Tom Brady and Chris Godwin. They smashed each finishing above 30 DK points. At 6.7-percent, Brady was moderately popular, but Godwin was heavily rostered at 22.7-percent. We aim for less popular plays but won’t complain about the performance. Godwin was just too cheap to be ignored.
The second stack featured Justin Herbert and Mike Williams. The Chargers didn’t get it going out of their bye week. Herbert had a rough day and barely targeted Williams. He finished with almost 16 points at 4.8-percent, while Williams only had 3.9 at the same roster share. The usage for a supposedly healthy Williams is puzzling.
Finally, we went cheap at QB with Taylor Heinicke and his lead WR Terry McLaurin. In a slow, defensive struggle with the Broncos we were banking on efficiency and some rushing to win the day, but that did not materialize. Heinicke turned it over twice which resulted in only 13.8 points. Terry was held in check as well with only three catches for 23 yards. Neither were chalky plays with Heinicke around 1-percent and McLaurin at 3-percent.
Week 9 Overview
Already this has arguably been the most hectic week of the season. Between the trade deadline, injury situations, Covid positives, and the Ruggs accident, us fantasy gamers will have to wade through significant uncertainty in the lead up to lock on Sunday. We can only go with what we know now for this piece, so for the most part I will default away from nebulous situations. Be flexible when building your lineups and know that there will be shifts in projected popularity for players come Sunday.
Having said that, the slate itself presents something of a blank canvas this week. The biggest projected shootout just had the excitement sucked out of it like a balloon with the news that Aaron Rodgers will miss. We don’t have the Buccaneers or the Rams on the slate, among others. The one other 50-plus point total game features the Eagles and Chargers both featuring popular QBs. There are also several cheap QBs who project to be quite viable with Jordan Love, Taysom Hill, and P.J. Walker filling in. With options across the price spectrum and no obvious chalk games, we can go in many different directions. For our plays this week, we’re looking at a couple mid-price options that leave room for studs and one interesting leverage play.
Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle
We kick off with Tua Tagovailoa going against the Texans at home this week. Since returning in Week 6, Tua has averaged 42 Attempts per Game. That would rank second across the season behind only Tom Brady. These performances have all come in losses, but we can still confidently project strong opportunity in the passing game this week. The matchup against the Texans is ideal to accumulate fantasy points even if the Dolphins do get out to a lead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcKC4yqTXJ4&t=115s&ab_channel=PlayerProfilerFantasyFootballwithThePodfather
DeVante Parker had the big game last week, but Jaylen Waddle continues to quietly see incredible opportunity for a rookie. His 287 Routes Run rank No. 4 among qualified wide receivers and are not empty wind sprints. He’s earned 70 (No. 7) Targets while out there. They’re near the line scrimmage, his 5.5 Average Target Distance ranks No. 98, but between his 4.37 (96th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash and 20.0 (93rd-percentile) College YPR, we know he’s a big play threat with the ball in his hands. All it takes is a one or two plays breaking loose to break a slate.
Daniel Jones and Kadarius Toney
Another budget option this week would pair Daniel Jones and Kadarius Toney at under $11k. It hasn’t been pretty for Jones so far in his Giants tenure, but aesthetics don’t win DFS tournaments. Ranking in the top ten in Attempts (273 is No. 8), Completed Air Yards (1,111 is No. 10), Money Throws (14 is No. 9), and Danger Plays (20 is No. 4), Jones’s chaotic style leads to both trouble in real life and points in fantasy. Combine that with 46 (No. 5) Carries and 241 (No. 5) Rush Yards and you have a legitimate dual threat QB.
Toney is back on the upswing from the Week 6 injury
The Giants have been pounded by injuries to skill position players this year. Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay are still out of practice. Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney were both questionable heading into last week and picked up new/re-aggravated old injuries. It looks like Toney will be good to go this week after taking a cleat to the hand. As the last man standing, he is in great position to continue to be fed targets. Having missed some time, his raw target numbers don’t look impressive. However, when on the field, he has established himself as a go-to option. Toney’s 17.7-percent Hog Rate (targets per snap) ranks No. 15. In a game with limited competition for targets against a Raiders squad travelling east for a 1:00 PM game having dealt with a distracting week, this could be a sneaky blow up spot for the Giants.
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb
For the final stack this week, we’re looking for an opportunity to leverage off of chalk. DraftKings severely underpriced Amari Cooper this week at $5.7K. Coming off a big game in primetime despite having to deal with Cooper Rush, Amari will be extremely popular. With some lingering Dak Prescott injury concern and the Cowboys as heavy favorites, Amari will likely be used as a one-off option in most fantasy gamers’ lineups.
While Cooper is too cheap, Prescott and teammate CeeDee Lamb are not. Dak checks in at $6.9K and Lamb at $7.2K. For the reasons mentioned above, those two do not project to be particularly popular. That’s where the leverage opportunity enters the picture. The strength of the Cowboys defense has reduced the need for Dak to throw 60 times a game to stay competitive like in years past. However, the drop in volume is being offset by incredible efficiency. Prescott’s 8.7 Adjusted Yards per Attempt rank No. 3, his 8.1 Accuracy Rating ranks No. 2, and his 0.59 Fantasy Points per Dropback rank No. 9.
CeeDee Lamb Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
We’ve seen games this year where Dak throws three or more touchdowns on less than 30 attempts. Lamb has been outperforming Cooper this year but solely due to pricing will be massively less played than him. You can set yourself up for a huge edge in tournaments by playing Prescott and Lamb if, say, two of the Cowboys’ touchdowns go to Lamb when over a third of the field is on Cooper.
