Better late than never, right? Blame college. I’m obviously late on this one but this simply to reinforce the beliefs of fantasy owners who snagged Cobb in the third or fourth round in drafts this year. To those who opted to draft Thomas Rawls instead of Randall Cobb, this one is for you.
Ignore 2015
Recency bias strikes again. The fantasy graveyard is filled with dead fantasy teams that drafted with recency bias. If you’re not cognizant of it’s existence, the team you supposedly fell in love with in the draft turns out to be 2-12. A recent report stated that Randall Cobb said he was never fully healthy during last season. While many players battle nagging injuries throughout the entirety of a season, when a player struggles to sleep at night from a reoccurring injury, it’s more than just a nagging injury. Let’s enter a time machine. For all of you who love to fall victim to recency bias, the upcoming statistics may be “outdated.” Here’s a look at his profile after the 2014 season:
Randall Cobb 2015 Advanced Productivity and Efficiency Stats
Randall Cobb‘s 2014 numbers were truly incredible from a slot receiver. Before I go on a rant on how effective he was, I strongly advise checking out the screenshot above listing his productivity and efficiency metrics. His 10.1 yards per target and a 71.9-percent catch rate are both metrics worth remembering. But he was No. 23 in in Air Yards, what a disappointing season! The slot receiver was obviously average in that category and that has no fantasy relevance. With Jordy Nelson down, Davante Adams‘ miserable play and a nagging shoulder injury, a poor season makes sense.
Featured Role
Route Metrics via FootballProf.com
We all know Randall Cobb is strictly a slot receiver by his 5-10 size matched with a tiny Catch Radius. Not to mention is limited experience on the outside during his time in the NFL. I’m not expecting 12 touchdowns again but I think it’s fair to say a 2014 type season is expected, considering Cobb will no longer be the main focus on offense. A role he clearly is not best suited for.
This is the Randall Cobb we know and love. The 2015 season is over and if you’re still skeptical on Cobb, I’m truly curious what legitimate concerns fantasy owners could have, specifically PPR players. He’s returning to his main role in the slot while being the No.2 guy, Jordy Nelson is back, Eddie Lacy should be improved. Where’s the concern? Cobb is not athletic nor big enough to carry the team on his back and there’s no problem accepting that. Slot receivers are not expected to be the core of an offense anyway, 2015 was simply an outlier for the entire Packer offense.
Jordy Nelson’s Return
As stated previously, a small guy like Randall Cobb usually can’t muster an entire workload and do so effectively. Normally a screenshot of last season’s metrics would appear here, but the stats and metrics are essentially worthless considering the many variables that factored into the poor season.
Game Splits from RotoViz
Here are Randall Cobb‘s numbers with and without Jordy Nelson since 2012. The games Cobb played without Nelson in 2015 support both narratives: Cobb was hurt and/or Nelson’s presence creates more opportunities for Cobb. Either way, Cobb projects to return low-end WR 1 numbers in 2016.
Conclusion
Apologies for the timeliness on the article, it obviously won’t help many for their current squad, unless you’re in a trading league. Don’t be surprised when Randall Cobb returns to being one of the most efficient and productive wide receivers in the NFL this season. If you are entering Week 1 with zero Cobb shares, I hope you will learn your lesson. A fair line to expect out of Cobb this year is somewhere around 90/1250/9. I didn’t name half of my fantasy teams “Corn on the Cobb” for nothing.
