XFL Week 2 Lessons and Week 3 DFS Breakdown

We’re two weeks into XFL football and some truths of the game are becoming self-evident. This is reflected in DraftKings pricing but DFS sites still don’t have a grasp on the new league like they do with the NFL. That means it’s still a very beatable landscape for fantasy.

Week 2 Fantasy Lessons

More Bad Quarterback Play

The game is still dominated by good quarterbacks. Phillip Walker has crushed all who stand before him with seven scores over two weeks. Cardale Jones has been efficient under center, throwing for 8.1 yards per attempt so far. However, neither of his first two opponents has been able to score, limiting his attempts. Jordan Ta’amu was a mixed bag in college, posting a 72.1 (43rd-percentile among qualified quarterbacks in the PlayerProfiler database) QBR with 9.5 (89th-percentile) yards per attempt, but that is clearly good enough to excel in the XFL. He ranks No. 2 in the league in both QBR (106.6) and passing yards (493).

Jordan Ta’amu Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile w/ College Stats

Landry Jones and Josh Johnson took the stage for the first time in Week 2 with Jones coming out on top. He recorded the league’s first 300-yard passing game en route to a Dallas victory over Los Angeles. No other passer has been worth turning to in Week 3 of XFL fantasy. The weapons of the undesirable quarterbacks are best used as one-offs in lineups stacked with players from teams with competent quarterback play.

Running Backs Struggling

Getting the right running back into our fantasy lineup still makes a huge difference between winning tournaments or beating our season-long opponent. However, rushing has been a futile effort for most fantasy backs. The carry has become a trash touch meant for garbage backs. Seven rushers have 19 or more carries on the season and they have combined for zero touchdowns on the ground. Those seven are averaging a hair under four yards per carry.

Instead of following carries, look for backs who are seeing pass game work and are on good offenses. Cameron Artis-Payne scored twice last week as the Renegades offense took off versus LA. Houston’s James Butler is the other two-score back despite only having 16 carries so far. Playing for the Roughnecks has its perks.

Lance Dunbar and Matt Jones are the only two other backs averaging double-digit DraftKings points. Jones scored on a 25-yard pass last week while Dunbar has been targeted 12 times.

Don’t pay up for running backs and focus on the wide receiver position, which has been where a bulk of the fantasy points have come from.

Final Notes

–DeAndre Thompkins, who put up a 6-92-1 stat line after missing Week 1, is a threat to all DC pass-catchers.

–Landry Jones led Dallas to 444 total yards of offense and all Renegades are in play with a good quarterback to run the air raid.

-Head coach Marc Trestman played Taylor Cornelius for a majority of  Tampa’s game while the league’s most dynamic talent, Quinton Flowers, sat on the bench. Even if Flowers can’t hold up as a passer, neither Cornelius nor Aaron Murray is the answer and Trestman should be condemned for making fans watch them.

-Stack Roughnecks games – they have produced the top receiver and quarterback in both weeks and three top-five receivers in each week.

Week 3 Breakdown

Quarterback

Don’t dip outside the five good quarterbacks, with one exception. Matt McGloin was benched in Week 2, allowing Marquise Williams ($6,400) to take the field. Williams was a serviceable passer, going four of eight for 50 yards, but has massive rushing appeal. He rushed for 948 yards during his final season at North Carolina. Should he get the start, he’s viable for both cash games and tournaments because of his price and rushing prowess.

The LA Wildcats are the best team that DC has faced to date with Josh Johnson now under center. That would open up the possibility of DC competing in their first shootout of the year and makes Cardale Jones ($10,800) a much more interesting option at quarterback. Jones also has some rushing chops, putting up 40 yards on the ground through two games.

As always, pay up for Houston’s  Phillip Walker ($11,500), salary-allowing. He’s putting up 27.5 DraftKings points per game and draws a below-average Tampa Bay Vipers defense (No. 5 in fantasy points allowed to passers) this week.

Running Back

If we’re not looking for rushers who do just that, rush the football, then look no further than Dallas’ Lance Dunbar ($6,600). He is No. 13 in the XFL with 12 targets, which is the most for a running back. He’s also added 11 rushes for 69 yards to his work as a receiver.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahyTP_q3GRA

Donnel Pumphrey ($7,000) showed up in Week 2 by leading the Defenders with 12 carries and netting five targets. Pumphrey’s college resume speaks for itself. He holds the NCAA record with 7,444 career yards from scrimmage, 1,158 of which came through the air. He won’t have an enormous share of DC’s carries, but he more than makes up for that with receptions.

De’Veon Smith ($6,300) and Jacques Patrick ($4,400) have split carries thus far and Patrick has had the edge in targets with five. The downside is that he’s only converted on two of them, one of which went for negative yards. Smith also leads Patrick in carries 27 to 22. He’s an interesting option now that DraftKings prices are becoming efficient and he plays in a game that features Houston.

Wide Receiver

Per usual, stack up on Houston and their opponents:

–Reece Horn ($4,200) leads the Vipers in targets at 13 and is the cheapest Tampa receiver with more than two targets.

–Cam Phillips ($11,100) and Sammie Coates ($7,700) are dealing with ankle and thigh injuries, respectively. This should open up volume for Kahlil Lewis ($9,100) and Nick Holley ($4,400), who have 13 and 11 targets on the year. Phillips is still the best-projected flex play if healthy due to his 33.6-percent Air Yards share and 26.1-percent Target Share on the league’s best offense.

Note: Not all heroes wear capes. Some harvest the film for XFL air yards so we can continue to live our cushy, non-film-grinding lives.

Keenan Reynolds ($7,400) holds the highest Air Yards share at 41.9-percent, but only has five catches and 92 yards to show for it. Brandon Silvers hasn’t done a great job getting him the ball. He’s completing just under half of his pass attempts but he hasn’t been afraid to try the deep ball, which bodes well for Reynolds. Seattle are five-point dogs this week so Silvers will have to take to the air again, giving Reynolds many chances at catching a bomb.

Rashad Ross ($9,400) has paid off two weeks in a row but he’s done so on seven total targets. For $300 more, we can (and should) play Eli Rogers ($9,700), who has double the targets and only 18 fewer Air Yards.

Defense

Definitely don’t play defenses facing Houston, Dallas or DC.

With Josh Johnson‘s return for LA and Jordan Ta’amu’s surprising accuracy, defenses matched up with the Wildcats and Battlehawks should be off-limits too.

The Battlehawks ($3,700) have played against two of the top offensive schemes in Dallas’ Air Raid and Houston’s Run ‘N’ Shoot. They haven’t been able to put up fantasy points yet, but no team would with that schedule. Now they draw the sputtering New York Guardians offense that is coming hot off a mid-game quarterback benching. They are the lowest we should pay for a defense this week and provide serious value.