Underworld Rookie Mock Draft Recap #5

Draft Strategy

The RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts, running through the summer. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community, and our friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the festivities and adding their own unique perspectives.

Rookie Mock Draft Recap #5 – SuperFlex/TE Premium

The latest Underworld and Friends rookie mock began on March 22nd. It took two weeks to complete, but by God we made it. Grinding through the rookie mocking process was hard enough before factoring in the proverbial wet farts that were (most of) the prospect pro days. Now comes the process of re-calibrating these player values after taking in the new information given to us by the weigh-ins and athletic testing. And then we’ll do it again after the NFL Draft. But for now, here’s a look at the SuperFlex/TE Premium rookie draft landscape pre-pro day apocalypto.

fantasy-football-dynasty-league-rankings

1.01 – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Analyst: Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_)
Rationale: With Andrew Luck-level upside, Lawrence is the no-brainer pick here.

1.02 – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

Analyst: Neil Dutton (@NDutton13)
Rationale: I had been getting Najee Harris early in other drafts, but then Travis Etienne went and weighed in at 215-pounds. Yes, that’ll do.

1.03 – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Analyst: Mike Valverde (@RFLRedZone)
Rationale: Cannon of an arm and attacks downfield, but can show to be hesitant at times and does not have the best accuracy. He does have great build and athleticism and doesn’t make bad decisions.

1.04 – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

Analyst: Cole Uvila (@ColeUvila)
Rationale: Easiest Pick of my life! Fields has all the tools to be a QB1 for years to come and should start Week 1 of the upcoming season.

1.05 – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

Analyst: Ray Ray Marz (@rayraymarz)
Rationale: In this, the seventh total rookie mock draft in the RotoUnderworld series (five community mocks, two Underworld vs RosterWatch mocks), this is the latest Najee Harris has fallen regardless of format, and I’ll gladly scoop him up here. A size/speed freak with pass-catching chops and college pedigree who logged a 30.0-percent-plus College Dominator Rating in the SEC, whose biggest flaw on his prospect profile is his age? Yes please.

1.06 – Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina

Analyst: Nick Tabs (@ntabs33)
Rationale: In a recent Mind of Mansion episode J.J. Zachariason mentioned that Williams could be the first RB drafted. Three-down stud!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSgZVQH19Us

1.07 – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale: Chase impressed at his LSU pro day, running a 4.34-second 40-yard Dash (editors note: adjusted to a 4.39, ranking in the 95th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) and posting a 41-inch vertical leap. This should be the last time the WR1 is available at the 1.07.

1.08 – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

Analyst: Jared Johnson
Rationale: He will likely be a top 5 pick in the actual NFL Draft because of his incredible ability to climb the pocket, adjust arm angles when sensing pressure, and polished athletic ability. The only knock on Wilson is his lack of elite competition at BYU and potentially his attitude.

1.09 – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)

Mac Jones Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

1.10 – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)
Rationale: Second-best receiver in this class. I would greenlight this pick anywhere after No. 5 in this format. Pitts is only going to be 20 years young Week 1. He literally checks every advanced metric box! If he’s available this late, just be glad you’re in a league with fish.

1.11 – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

Analyst: Andrew Quinn
Rationale: I feel like I am at a tier break with the big QBs, RBs, Chase and Pitts gone. Bateman seems like the next “can’t miss” guy at WR behind Chase.

1.12 – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Analyst: Rob Johnson
Rationale: A little surprised the best player in college football is the third WR off the board, but I will happily take Smith at the end of the first.

Round 1 Takeaways

Barring anything crazy between now and draft day, most of the first round in this format should be basically locked in. We know that the Elite Four at the skill positions per our rookie rankings (Harris, Etienne, Chase, Javonte) will be selected, as will Kyle Pitts and the five QBs projected to become first-round NFL Draft picks. The only real difference between the first round of this mock and the first rounds of the previous two SuperFlex/TE Premium mocks is that Devonta Smith has broken into the first round while Jermar Jefferson has fallen into the second.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBgXDURH4Fg

Without any athletic testing numbers, or even an official height and weight, Smith is the ultimate black box NFL prospect. Finding Best Comparable Players for these incoming rookies was always going to be an interesting process given the lack of a Combine to really compare these players in an apples to apples way, and Smith drawing the legendary Joe Horn as his best comp is sure to raise eyebrows, especially when considering that he’s the only comp that’s objectively any good. But when dealing with a black box prospect who’s also a Heisman Trophy winner, we should be allowed to err on the side of the higher-end comp in the grouping. His Breakout Rating will be helped by his inevitable early round draft selection.

2.01 – Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

Analyst: Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_)
Rationale: He might be 5-7, but that didn’t stop him from being the only freshman in this class with a 30-percent-plus College Dominator Rating. Give me Mighty Mouse all day.

2.02 – Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State

Analyst: Neil Dutton (@NDutton13)
Rationale: Young. Dominant. Decent receiving profile. Welcome to my squad, Jermar Jefferson.

2.03 – Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma St

Analyst: Mike Valverde (@RFLRedZone)
Rationale: Decisive runner with a terrific jump cut, but is on the smaller side at 6-0, 207-pounds, and needs to take care of the ball. He fumbled seven times in two seasons, but led the nation with 328 carries in 2019 and never slowed down. He can bounce it outside as well. His injuries suffered in 2020 are a concern, but he’s a world-class sprinter and a former 4-star recruit.

2.04 – Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

Analyst: Cole Uvila (@ColeUvila)
Rationale: Marshall has a unique profile with a lot to like and I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in the areas he lacks due to playing behind Chase/Jefferson.

2.05 – Kenny Gainwell, RB, Memphis

Analyst: Ray Ray Marz (@rayraymarz)
Rationale: Tough choice here between Gainwell and Waddle. I’m not looking forward to seeing what the WR depth looks like by the time I’m up again at 3.05. Looking less forward to see what the RB depth looks like. This class is filled with receivers that fill similar svelte, slot-type archtypes, and I’m banking on at least one player I can talk myself into from that range being there in the next round. Primiarily for that reason, Gainwell is the pick here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVZ8kiCdwks

2.06 – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

Analyst: Nick Tabs (@ntabs33)
Rationale: Can’t pass up a potential first round WR in the second round of a rookie draft. Waddle makes it look easy, now we wait to see who will be throwing him the ball.

2.07 – Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale: Fast, explosive, sure-handed, and a solid route runner. Moore brings a lot of upside to my fantasy team here in the back half of the second round.

2.08 – Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina

Analyst: Jared Johnson
Rationale: People forget he was the lead back for North Carolina and has the ability to get into the secondary with a quick burst through the line. He’s also a much better receiver than backfield teammate Javonte Williams. His only downside is his size: 5-8 and 202-pounds.

2.09 – Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: Continuing to get Dyami in a later half of Round 2. Incredible value for what I see as the WR5 in this class. Back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons at a talent rich North Carolina.

2.10 – Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)

2.11 – Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State

Analyst: Andrew Quinn
Rationale: Will gladly take the, IMO, clear TE2 in the class in the back end of round 2. Let’s hope he breaks out in a couple years!

2.12 – Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio State

Analyst: Rob Johnson
Rationale: There are whispers linking him to the Steelers after his pro day, but his physicality and explosiveness should earn him early-down/red zone carries wherever he lands.

Round 2 Takeaways

From being undrafted in our first SF/TEP outing to creeping into the fourth round last time and the second round this time, Kellen Mond is slowly working his way up in these mocks. Once the Elite Five signal callers are off the board, the placement of the remaining QBs will largely be determined by draft position/landing spot. The Texas A&M product has a bit of Konami Code appeal to him and can end up being a value by the end of this process.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NAYXzVTyWE

The two notable players to fall out of this round and into the third are Tamorrion Terry and Tylan Wallace. It’s understandable with Terry due to him coming in shorter, lighter, and slower than expected. With Wallace, it’s the lack of athletic testing numbers that may be hurting him relative to his peers. It shouldn’t be enough to knock him this far down the board; our rookie rankings have continued to have him pegged as a mid-to-late second-round value in this format.

3.01 – Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State

Analyst: Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_)
Rationale: Tylan Wallace is a classic Tyler Lockett/Emmanuel Sanders type secondary receiver with projected Day 2 draft capital. Feels like a nice pull at the 3.01.

3.02 – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC

Analyst: Neil Dutton (@NDutton13)
Rationale: I love the early Breakout Age for Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s not a bad option here, but I’d be guilty of untruthfulness if I said I was ecstatic with the pick.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcIRCdGg5rM

3.03 – Anthony Schwartz, WR, Auburn

Analyst: Mike Valverde (@RFLRedZone)
Rationale: He is the fastest WR in this class, as his 10.09 in the 100M testifies too. He has a nice hesitation release off the LOS, but doesn’t have a great feel for route running or ball skills, and struggles to get defensive hands off him. But he gets deep and even though he’s thin, his average depth of target is 15-yards from the slot.

3.04 – Tamorrion Terry, WR, Florida State

Analyst: Cole Uvila (@ColeUvila)
Rationale: At this point in the draft, I’m shooting for the stars. I love Terry’s upside.

3.05 – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

Analyst: Ray Ray Marz (@rayraymarz)
Rationale: Regardless of whether he’s overrated, or any good for that matter, Kadarius Toney is still projected to be a first-round NFL Draft pick. Until we have more information to go off of (draft capital, landing spot, etc), I’ll scoop him up in the mid-third (and have done so) every time.

3.06 – Javian Hawkins, RB, Louisville

Analyst: Nick Tabs (@ntabs33)
Rationale: Speed and elusiveness are what give me hope he can pan out as a pro, but his 5-9, 180-pound frame is a long-term concern.

3.07 – Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale: A versatile slot receiver that’s built like a running back. Rodgers describes himself as a Randall Cobb-type player with hopes of landing in Green Bay on Day 2.

3.08 – Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami

Analyst: Jared Johnson
Rationale: Jordan is dominant at the line of scrimmage and is a very willing blocker with exceptional athleticism. His upside is apparent, but he does struggle with contested catches at times and will need to develop into a red zone threat to become a fantasy-relevant TE.

3.09 – Seth Williams, WR, Auburn

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: Solid showing last week at the Auburn Pro Day, and a shoe-in for Day 2 draft capital. Williams will bring prototypical X/Alpha receiver size to any offense.

3.10 – Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)

Kylin Hill Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

3.11 – Kyle Trask, QB, Florida

Analyst: Andrew Quinn
Rationale: I’ll take a shot at, hopefully, the next QB off the draft boards after the big 5 and Mond. In a SuperFlex league, I think he’s a good value here.

3.12 – D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan

Analyst: Rob Johnson
Rationale: A pro day 4.40 40-yard Dash confirms what everyone already knows about the speedster from Western Michigan. He’s an underrated route-runner with big play potential and he comes with the added upside of returning kicks.

Round 3 Takeaways

Not a whole lot to say about this round. You’ve got value picks at WR in Wallace, St. Brown, Toney and Schwartz (in relation to their current slots in the rookie rankings), you’ve got a QB in Trask who can rise into round two if he gets the draft capital/landing spot, and you’ve got Brevin Jordan who usually won’t make it out of this third frame. I wish I had some more fun anecdotes for you about how this range of drafts is still GET YOUR GUY territory, but I find that there are decent enough values in this area to be able to make a more grounded selection. For me, that entailed taking Kadarius Toney, a player with potential first round NFL Draft aspirations at the 3.05.

4.01 – Elijah Mitchell, RB, Louisiana Lafayette

Analyst: Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_)

4.02 – Jaret Patterson, RB, Buffalo

Analyst: Neil Dutton (@NDutton13)
Rationale: I seem to be able to land Jaret Patterson in every mock I do, often later than this. But I didn’t want to chance losing him.

4.03 – Dazz Newsome, WR, North Carolina

Analyst: Mike Valverde (@RFLRedZone)
Rationale: A 50/50 ball winner who is shifty and will sink his hips and has burst on cuts. He can be re-routed and looks specifically to be a slot receiver, but has speed to go deep and breaks tackles leading to Yards After the Catch. He will need to learn how to use his hands and not body catch, but is an overall versatile player who understands defenses being that he played DB and RB in high school.

4.04 – Marlon Williams, WR, UCF

Analyst: Cole Uvila (@ColeUvila)
Rationale: I love my #thicc players and Cody turned me to Marlon. Outside of size, nothing jumps off the screen when watching him play, but I think he could have a role in the NFL as a gadget/flanker type. Just a fun player I personally am rooting for.

4.05 – Nico Collins, WR, Michigan

Analyst: Ray Ray Marz (@rayraymarz)
Rationale: Michigan stigma be damned, Nico Collins is sure to see his stock skyrocket after the show he put on at his pro day. I’ll take a guy who could sneak into Day 2 of the draft and who has the prototypical size we look for in our alpha dog wideouts.

4.06 – Demetric Felton, WR, UCLA

Analyst: Nick Tabs (@ntabs33)
Rationale: A dynamic tool out of the backfield or slot, looks like a Tarik Cohen clone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpVAyRj57Sw

4.07 – Khalil Herbert, RB, Virginia Tech

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale: Herbert produced after transferring to Virginia Tech in 2020 and seeing more significant playing time. Projected to be drafted as high as the middle rounds, he’s a worthwhile pick here in the fourth.

4.08 – Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Oklahoma

Analyst: Jared Johnson
Rationale: Has upside if in the right scheme because he is an effective receiver and possesses good vision with excellent between-the-tackle skills. His upside is capped because he has limited burst and lacks the explosiveness you want out of a bellcow back.

4.09 – Jaelon Darden, WR, North Texas

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: I’m going to keep smashing this button until the end. To much upside here for Darden, can’t wait to see where he lands!

4.10 – Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)

4.11 – Simi Fehoko, WR, Stanford

Analyst: Andrew Quinn

4.12 – Davis Mills, QB, Stanford

Analyst: Rob Johnson
Rationale: The last real draftable QB in this class, don’t be surprised to see Mills make his way up fantasy and NFL mocks as the offseason continues.

Round 4 Takeaways

I feel obligated to point out that if Nico Collins is drafted by Kansas City in the second round as suggested in Cody’s Mock Draft 2.0, then he’s going to go much earlier than 4.05 in the future. I’ll also point out that since these picks were made before his face-melting pro day, this is likely the last time we see Elijah Mitchell fall out of the third round.

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Fun story: during a previous one of these mocks, one of our writers with Breakout Finder ties (Casey Gruarin) picked Mitchell with Elijah Moore still on the board. Since I was to do the article recap, and since their ADPs were far enough at the time for me to take notice, I had to make sure that this particular E. Mitchell was actually who he wanted. He then became one of the few backs in this class to really impress athletically, shortly after Casey’s puff piece on him was featured on our site.

That’s the last time I ever question any of these Breakout Finder guys when they make a pick, whether or not the draft even counts.

5.01 – Hunter Long, TE, Boston College

Analyst: Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_)

5.02 – Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest

Analyst: Neil Dutton (@NDutton13)

5.03 – Chris Evans, RB, Michigan

Analyst: Mike Valverde (@RFLRedZone)

5.04 – Tre McKitty, TE, Georgia

Analyst: Cole Uvila (@ColeUvila)

5.05 – Ihmir Smith-Marsette, WR, Iowa

Analyst: Ray Ray Marz (@rayraymarz)

5.06 – Trey Ragas, RB, Louisiana Lafayette

Analyst: Nick Tabs (@ntabs33)

5.07 – C.J. Marable, RB, Coastal Carolina

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)

5.08 – Tommy Tremble, TE, Notre Dame

Analyst: Jared Johnson

5.09 – Kenny Yeboah, TE, Ole Miss

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)

5.10 – Shi Smith, WR, South Carolina

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)

5.11 – Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee

Analyst: Andrew Quinn

5.12 – Pooka Williams, RB, Kansas

Analyst: Rob Johnson

Round 5 Takeaways

Unlike RosterWatch vs. Underworld Part II, a number of TEs were selected in the final round of this draft. If any of them exceed expectations and become the prize of this year’s rookie crop, we aren’t allowed to be surprised. Only other real note to add is that I’m noticing Shi Smith falling further and further with each passing mock. Though he’s one of many receivers in this class with the same Jamison Crowder-esque archetype, our rookie rankings do still have him as an early fourth-round value in this format. Nabbing him with the third to last pick of the draft has to be considered a value, even if only by default.

As for me, I’m not exactly in flag-planting territory with Ihmir Smith-Marsette yet, but I did take him in RosterWatch vs. Underworld II, and I do enjoy his elite dynamism and top 20 Breakout Rating in this class.

Conclusion

On the rookie mock docket, we’ve got Cody Carpentier coming at you next time with a recap of the first 2QB mock that we’ve conducted in this series. It will be interesting to see how the addition of a second QB slot affects the proceedings, and which players get pushed down the board as a result of more inevitably being selected.