RotoUnderworld Junior Writer Draft Recap No. 4 – 2021 Redraft Half PPR

Draft Strategy

Fantasy football drafts are a year-round activity. Literally. My main league drafts at the end of June every season for the “full GM experience.” That’s right, we like to scout our guys early, follow them through training camp, and adjust when disaster strikes. In fact, I requested this article be delayed so nobody in my league could see my picks before we draft (I know you guys are reading now). I will share with you a mock I completed recently in case any of you sickos are anything like me and my friends or if you have that early fantasy itch- I’ll scratch it for you.

  • 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K, 6 Bench

  • 12 Teams, Half PPR, no TE Premium, 6-point passing touchdowns

  • Mock done on Sleeper

The Picks

1.12) Aaron Jones (RB9)

If there was no drama with Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones would not have fell to this pick. Assuming Rodgers stays, I love Jones at this value. He averaged 18.4 (No. 4 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game this past season, and 19.7 (No. 3) FFPG last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrZ7TWKYQfI

Jones recently got paid $48 million over the next four years, which shows the organization’s commitment, and is attached to a prolific offense. Next pick.

2.01) Cam Akers (RB10)

At Florida State, we saw Cam Akers handle a three down role. And at the end of last season into the playoffs, we saw the Rams lean on Akers as their primary back.

With an upgrade at QB with Matthew Stafford, and an elite defense, Akers will see plentiful touches, scoring opportunities, and positive Game Script. I wanted to go Travis Kelce at this pick, but the value at TE that I knew would fall to the next set of picks picks was too great to pass on another stud at RB/WR at this one.
 

Other Considerations: Travis Kelce, Antonio Gibson

3.12) Darren Waller (TE2)

I love Darren Waller this year so much. Name an opportunity and/or productivity metric and you’re likely to find him with last season’s highest or second-highest mark.  

Darren Waller 2020 Opportunity and Productivity Metrics

Waller is by far the main target on his offense and barely blocks for a TE which means he’s running more routes. The premium of an elite TE at this spot was too good to pass up.

4.01) Julio Jones (WR14)

This mock was completed before Julio Jones was traded to the Titans, but looking back at it, I don’t think I would change the pick. The Titans averaged 31.8 (No. 30) Team Pass Plays per Game compared to the Atlanta’s 41.8 (No. 3) Team Pass Plays per Game. But aside from A.J. Brown, there is no competition for targets in Tennessee, while the Falcons still have Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, and more.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewKfAs3C7a8

This team change should do little to change Jones’ value. If you we’re out on him, this trade won’t bring you back in, and if you were in then this shouldn’t change much. Age and injury risk are concerns, but in nine games, he put up 771 (No. 39) receiving yards, 0.51 (No. 8) Fantasy Points per Route Run, and a +23.9 (No. 8) Production Premium. He’s still elite on the field. There’s a real scenario where he out-targets Brown.

Other Considerations: Robert Woods, CeeDee Lamb

5.12) Lamar Jackson (QB5)

Lamar Jackson was the last remaining player in my first tier of quarterbacks. He has proven his generational rushing talent year after year, putting up an insane 1,005 (No. 1) rushing yards and seven (No. 4) rushing touchdowns on 159 (No. 1) carries in 2020. His floor as a rusher alone should easily make him a QB1.

fantasy-football-dynasty-league-rankings

6.01) David Johnson (RB26)

David Johnson is criminally under-drafted this season thus far. Yes, the Texans will be garbage, but are we going to pretend that Phillip Lindsay or Mark Ingram will steal his opportunity?

Johnson had a 77.4-percent (No. 2) Snap Share and a 70.5-percent (No. 1) Route Participation mark last season. There is also a possibility that Deshaun Watson returns to the team.

Other Considerations: Travis Etienne, Courtland Sutton

7.12) Deebo Samuel (WR34)

Deebo Samuel gets lined up all over the field in a creative San Francisco offense that should be efficient again this year.

If not for his injury, Samuel would be valued much higher, but his consistency on this offense outweighs the tradeoff

8.01) Ja’Marr Chase (WR35)

The universal WR1 among all rookie wide receivers, Ja’Marr Chase should have a productive rookie season after reuniting with his college quarterback Joe Burrow. The last time Burrow and Chase played together, Chase had 84 receptions on 111 targets, 1,780 receiving yards, and 20 receiving touchdowns in 14 games en route to the National Championship.

Chase has an alpha build, as well as insane athleticism and college production metrics. He and Samuel form a combined WR2 slot in my starting lineup with position premium on QB and TE.

Other Considerations: Curtis Samuel, Brandin Cooks, Jerry Jeudy

9.12) Laviska Shenault (WR44)

Laviska Shenault has high upside this season at his current value. He was selected with early second-round draft capital and receives a generational quarterback prospect in Trevor Lawrence.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFmqhtU1VPA

I’ll take the chance that Lawrence falls in love with Shenault’s alpha build and +27.5-percent (No. 8) Target Premium mark from his rookie year.

10.1) Darrell Henderson (RB42)

Not only does Darrell Henderson fit the handcuff role for Cam Akers, but among all RB handcuffs, Henderson’s ceiling is noticeably higher than most. In the situation where Akers goes down, there is no depth behind Henderson, and would see all of the touches.

Other Considerations: Antonio Brown, Trey Sermon, Devonta Smith, Marvin Jones

11.12) J.D. McKissic (RB51)

J.D. McKissic is not the sexiest pick, but I’d bet he outperforms the RB51 price tag.

McKissic was a top pass-catching RB in all of football last year, evidenced by his 110 (No. 1) targets, 589 (No. 2) receiving yards, 75 (No. 1) slot snaps, and 357 (No. 3) routes run

12.01) Michael Pittman (WR51)

Michael Pittman’s upside at WR51 is undeniable. His early-second round draft capital is significant, and he gets a theoretical upgrade at quarterback from Jacoby Brissett to Carson Wentz.

In the 12th round, I’ll take the chance that a player with a 111.2 (93rd-percentile) Speed Score and 10.25 (89th-percentile) Catch Radius breaks out in Year 2.

Other Considerations: Darnell Mooney, John Brown

13.12) Denzel Mims (WR63)

Denzel Mims has the profile of a future wide receiver breakout. I mean, just look at it.

If it happens it’ll be ugly, but it could absolutely happen, as much as the Jets will try to prevent it.

14.01) Daniel Jones (QB18)

Ok, sue me. Daniel Jones showed his rushing upside last season and received massive upgrades at his skill positions with Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and a returning Saquon Barkley. Let me believe! 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTolblcqJCY

Other Considerations: Rondale Moore, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Wayne Gallman

15.12) Tyler Bass (K10)

Some advice if you are drafting this early, do not draft a D/ST. Pick up the extra roster spot, and if it works out it works out. As for Tyler Bass, he is attached to a great offense and a solid defense that should provide good field position.
 

Final Draft Board


I was happy with the balance of the team I drafted. Despite not having a top pick, I was able to nab two running backs with top 10 upside. I have premiums in positions that are often ignored at QB and TE with Lamar Jackson and Darren Waller. The weakness of my team is the WR position since I only took one across my first six selections. But I believe I have enough upside from my late round WRs to fill in at that WR2 spot in my starting lineup, and have more than enough firepower to make up for it.