Last time we looked at the most productive 2020 rookie wide receivers. For this piece, we’re diving into a few more, most of whom proved relatively inefficient except Gabriel Davis. With a loaded 2020 rookie class, a third part appears necessary to include Denzel Mims, Jalen Reagor, and more potential second-year breakouts. All of the receivers listed here finished the season with at least 500 receiving yards and a double-digit Target Share. As always, when we’re diving into the 2020 rookie wide receivers, we analyze the advanced metrics to help us take an early look at 2021.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
FFPC 2020 ADP: 104.75
We’ve all seen those videos of Jerry Jeudy and his drool-inducing route running. However, he finished his rookie season among the league’s most inefficient receivers. He had two top-10 weeks with 20-plus fantasy points, but one was in Week 17. Outside of that, he lacked fantasy production, with 11 games where he ranked WR44 or lower and only three where he ranked WR39 or better. His inconsistent production makes sense when we consider his decent opportunities but lack of efficiency.
Jeudy boasted a 21.2-percent (No. 31 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and 113 (No. 21) targets with 1,536 (No. 6) Air Yards and a 31.5-percent (No. 25) Air Yards Share. With the high Air Yards total, his 13.6 (No. 18) Average Target Distance is unsurprising. Although he earned a decent amount of opportunities as a rookie, he struggled with 52 (No. 51) receptions, yet totaled 856 (No. 30) receiving yards.
Jerry Jeudy 2020 Efficiency Metrics
In terms of efficiency, Jeudy had a high 16.5 (No. 11) Yards per Reception, but a weak 7.6 (No. 76) Yards per Target. When seeing that discrepancy, his -16.5 (No. 82) Production Premium isn’t surprising. Still, his 0.31 (No. 72) Fantasy Points per Route Run and 1.38 (No. 102) Fantasy Points per Target were eyebrow-raising marks.
Early 2021 Outlook
Sometimes receivers rely on volume, efficiency, or a mix of both. Hopefully for Jerry Jeudy, the opportunities or efficiency improves in 2021. In 2020, the Broncos averaged 36.8 (No. 20) Team Pass Plays per Game and quarterback Drew Lock finished with a -8.0 (No. 25) Production Premium. The mediocre passing volume, production, and efficiency isn’t a recipe for fantasy production. It’s crazy to consider that fantasy managers drafted Jeudy before rookies that smashed their ADP in Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Chase Claypool, and Tee Higgins.
With that said, expect Jeudy’s 2021 ADP to fall and buy back into the potential for efficiency regression and improvements in 2021. Keep in mind that he may lose opportunities when Courtland Sutton returns from his injury. On the positive side, Sutton’s return may help Jeudy avoid an opposing team’s primary coverage. Though if he receives fewer or similar opportunities, he’ll need Lock’s quality and efficiency to improve. Among the more talented rookie wide receivers, I’m buying back into Jeudy in 2021.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
FFPC 2020 ADP: Undrafted
Speedster Darnell Mooney came into the NFL with an underrated profile. His elite speed showed up with a 4.38 (96th-percentile) 40-yard Dash, but his 91.7 (41st-percentile) Speed Score means he lacks side-adjusted speed. However, we love the 36.5-percent (72nd-percentile) College Dominator Rating, 28.0-percent (77th-percentile) College Target Share, and 18.9 (92nd-percentile) Breakout Age.
Inconsistent quarterback play and usage saw Mooney earn 98 (No. 36) targets, a 16.5-percent (No. 59) Target Share, 1,157 (No. 29) Air Yards, and 25.0-percent (No. 44) Air Yards Share. The total target volume provides hope as we consider the team’s passing opportunities. Although the Bears averaged 40.6 (No. 9) Team Pass Plays per Game, Mooney deserved more opportunities. He logged 61 (No. 36) receptions and 631 (No. 55) receiving yards, averaging 9.4 (No. 61) Fantasy Points per Game.
Darnell Mooney 2020 Efficiency Metrics
Whenever we notice a discrepancy in opportunity and productivity, it’s unsurprising to see weak efficiency. Mooney averaged a lowly 10.3 (No. 94) Yards per Reception and 6.4 (No. 98) Yards per Target. Meanwhile, he also finished with a -14.5 (No. 79) Production Premium, 0.29 (No. 80) Fantasy Points per Route Run, and 1.53 (No. 90) Fantasy Points per Target. Whether we’re talking Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles, both raise red flags, particularly in the efficiency department. A quarterback’s efficiency typically helps the receiver’s efficiency, and it’s unlikely Mooney’s efficiency improves in 2021 with Trubisky or Foles at quarterback.
Early 2021 Outlook
There’s potential for Darnell Mooney‘s opportunities to tick up next season. Even his teammate Allen Robinson, who earned massive opportunities, struggled in the efficiency department with a -1.0 (No. 48) Production Premium. Mooney went undrafted in FFPC leagues, but he flashed enough in 2020. He’s a sneaky late-round sleeper in 2021, especially if Robinson moves on since he’s an unrestricted free agent. I don’t think Mooney fits a team’s WR1 role, and it’s likely the Bears either re-sign Robinson or draft or sign another wide receiver. Assuming the quarterback situation also improves, then that’s another sign for optimism here.
Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars
FFPC 2020 ADP: 167
A few words that come to mind when describing Laviska Shenault – athletic physical specimen. Although it doesn’t show up in his NFL Combine metrics, his film shows an ability to beat defenders and breaks tackles. He has a 103.2 (78th-percentile) Speed Score despite running a 4.58 (37th-percentile) 40-yard Dash. Take these workout metrics with a grain of salt because he came into the Combine with a core muscle injury that needed surgery, and that impacted him. He ranked above average with a 35.1-percent (68th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, 26.2-percent (67th-percentile) College Target Share, and 19.9 (66th-percentile) Breakout Age.
Check out Laviska Shenault on PlayerProfiler’s New DYNASTY DELUXE Rankings:
Even though the season-long numbers don’t look great, Shenault finished as WR38 or better in five out of eight games where he received six or more targets. Overall, he received inconsistent opportunities, likely due to the revolving door at quarterback. He finished his rookie year with 79 (No. 52) targets, a 15.3-percent (No. 66) Target Share, 518 (No. 83) Air Yards, and a 12.1-percent (No. 98) Air Yards Share. He showed his yards after the catch ability with 287 (No. 33) YAC and a 6.6 (No. 102) Average Target Distance, meaning he gained almost half of his receiving yards after the catch. He finished with 58 (No. 42) receptions, 600 (No. 61) receiving yards, and five (No. 35) touchdowns. The Jaguars also gave him 18 rushing attempts on the season.
With the low amount of opportunities and mediocre production, it’s not surprising that Shenault’s efficiency metrics look unappetizing. He averaged 7.6 (No. 76) Yards Per Target and logged a -3.4 (No. 58) Production Premium. However, a couple of reasons for optimism include his 0.41 (No. 39) Fantasy Points per Route Run, 1.99 (No. 26) Fantasy Points per Target, and +27.5-percent (No. 8) Target Premium. Those efficiency metrics proved that he’s sneakily efficient on a per-target basis.
Early 2021 Outlook
Heading into 2021, the Jaguars expect to draft quarterback Trevor Lawrence, which would be an unquestioned upgrade for Shenault. Although D.J. Chark projects to be the top Jaguars wide receiver, Shenault proved he’s no slouch. With that in mind, he’s a high-upside play as a WR4 with WR3 potential heading into 2021. If he earns more opportunities, then his ceiling is more likely in the WR2 range. Lastly, we’ll leave you with this nugget – the Best Comparable Player on his PlayerProfiler page is A.J. Brown.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qs9iuGUhqk0
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills
FFPC 2020 ADP: Undrafted
At a glance, Gabriel Davis splashed in several games in the second half of the season. He finished inside the top-25 in four out of 16 games, including an 18.7-point (No. 19) game in Week 17. Outside of those games, he typically played behind Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley. He finished his rookie season with 62 (No. 68) targets and a 10.8-percent (No. 94) Target Share. He also racked up a decent 957 (No. 40) Air Yards with an 18.8-percent (No. 69) Air Yards Share. The Bills used him as a deep threat, which showed up in his 15.4 (No. 7) Average Target Distance mark. He did score an impressive seven (No. 19) touchdowns, but only logged 35 (No. 77) receptions and 599 (No. 62) receiving yards.
WR Data Sorted by Fantasy Points Per Target
Given Davis’ high 19.4-percent touchdown rate, it’s no surprise that he ranked highly in many of PlayerProfiler’s efficiency metrics. He ended the year averaging 17.1 (No. 7) Yards per Reception and 9.7 (No. 18) Yards per Target, with a +15.8 (No. 15) Production Premium. His 2.21 (No. 11) Fantasy Points per Target average is unreal given the low amount of opportunities. With Diggs, Brown and Beasley all around in 2021, it’s hard to project more opportunities. However, if Josh Allen can prove that the efficiency he displayed in 2019 wasn’t a fluke, Davis can provide sneaky fantasy production as a deep Flex wide receiver.
