There are three late-round wide receivers we should be targeting after pick No. 100 in fantasy football drafts. Each of these wide receivers provides extreme value in PPR leagues. They are Jamison Crowder, Anthony Miller, and Randall Cobb. All three of these players displayed productive stretches in 2019. Make sure to prioritize them as late-round draft targets in redraft leagues and snag at least one, if not more. Crowder projects to be a WR3, yet is drafted as a WR4. Meanwhile, Miller and Cobb go around pick No. 150 or later. Let’s use PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats and metrics to build the case for drafting these players after pick No. 100.
Jamison Crowder, New York Jets
Last season, Jamison Crowder reached career highs in targets and receptions while also leading the Jets in all receiving categories. Crowder received 122 (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) targets, 78 (No. 16) receptions, 834 (No. 32) receiving yards, and six (No. 22) touchdowns. Last year, he was a target hog with a 24.7-percent (No. 14) Target Share and a 16.0-percent (No. 15) Hog Rate. The Hog Rate, in particular, indicates what players are the focal points of their passing offense.
Jamison Crowder 2019 Opportunity and Productivity Metrics
On the putrid Jets offense, Crowder demanded and received a ton of opportunities, producing 12.4 (No. 36) Fantasy Points per Game. The Jets have 186 (No. 4) Vacated Targets. Even with Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman taking some of the available targets, Crowder should receive more looks in 2020. In terms of Game Script, the Jets ranked No. 24 last year, and playing from behind equals more passing. Trust the volume because opportunities are highly-regarded in fantasy football.
Check out Jamison Crowder’s 2020 Projection on PlayerProfiler’s “World Famous” Draft Kit:
One concern for Crowder involves efficiency. With a low 8.0 (No. 91) Average Target Distance mark, it’s not surprising that he finished with a -4.0 (No. 54) Production Premium. However, efficiency becomes less of an issue with the target volume he receives. His 108.45 FFPC ADP continues to rise as we move closer to the start of the fantasy football season. He’s the 41st receiver drafted on average per current FFPC ADP data and is a solid WR3, at worst, for any squad. The target hogging and draft value make Crowder one of the best wide receivers to draft after pick No. 100.
Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears
Don’t sleep on Anthony Miller. Although his season-long line doesn’t look amazing, the whole Bears offense struggled last year. Last season, he finished with 85 (No. 44) targets, 52 (No. 43) receptions, 656 (No. 49) receiving yards, and two (No. 75) touchdowns. Miller finished 2019 with a productive five-game stretch from Weeks 11-15. Throughout those five games, he totaled 52 targets, 33 receptions, 431 receiving yards, and his two touchdowns. He received over 60-percent of his targets, receptions, and receiving yards in that stretch while averaging 17.6 Fantasy Points per Game. For context, the increased production and opportunities coincided with Taylor Gabriel missing time due to an injury.
Recent news coming out of Bears camp is that Miller is developing a more structured routine and maturing as a professional. Even Bears wide receivers coach Mike Furrey commented that Miller started to understand what it takes to be a wide receiver around the middle of last year. Add that narrative to the fact that there’s little competition for wide receiver targets outside of Allen Robinson.
2019 70-plus target WRs w/ similar College Target Shares/Dominator Ratings
The table above compares wide receivers that received 70-plus targets with similar College Dominator Ratings and College Target Shares. A Dominator Rating of 35.0-percent or higher indicates that a wide receiver has the potential to be a high-end contributor. A second-round pick in 2018, Miller had a 39.9-percent (80th-percentile) College Dominator Rating and a 30.4-percent (86th-percentile) College Target Share. Not every young wide receiver explodes onto the scene, and Miller’s college prospect profile provides promise for a breakout 2020 season. His 146.43 FFPC ADP makes him a ridiculous draft value as the 53rd receiver off the board. In redraft, and especially in Best Ball leagues, draft Miller with a late-round pick and reap the fantasy goodness.
Randall Cobb, Houston Texans
Veteran Randall Cobb totaled over 800 receiving yards as Dallas’ third wide receiver last year. In 2019, Cobb recorded 83 (No. 48) targets, 55 (No. 41) receptions, 828 (No. 33) receiving yards, and three (No. 59) touchdowns. Similar to Anthony Miller, Cobb produced well during a brief stretch last season even though the season-long line doesn’t scream excitement. Cobb received six or more targets in nine games, averaging 12.6 Fantasy Points per Game during those contests.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aRr_iuri8I
Cobb proved to be efficient with 15.1 (No. 22) yards per reception, 10.0 (No. 9) yards per target, and a +10.3 (No. 27) Production Premium, all with the 48th-most targets. With DeAndre Hopkins traded to the Arizona Cardinals, the Texans have 167 (No. 6) Vacated Targets. Most of those looks project to head towards Brandin Cooks, but there’s a chance for Cobb to be in the 70-80 target range paired with an elite quarterback once again. His 208.45 FFPC ADP makes him the 70th receiver drafted on average, and a great draft value in deeper leagues.
