The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We weigh targets higher than carries and take it a step further to weigh it higher on DraftKings (PPR scoring) vs. FanDuel (Half PPR scoring). We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!
The Week 7 struggle is real not only in our season-long teams, but on this DFS slate as well! Four of the top five players that would be on this list are not playing on the main slate this week: Zack Moss (bye), Najee Harris (bye), Ezekiel Elliott (bye), and Jonathan Taylor (SNF).
Below are the top five values on the High Value Touch DFS Index that are on the Main Slate on Sunday, along with a few players that almost made the cut.
Top 5 Values:
5) James Conner: $5,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 20.71 (No. 6 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 19.70 (No. 5 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 55.42 percent
James Conner Opportunity and Productivity Metrics
James Conner is the goal-line back for Arizona. He has zero targets inside the 10-yard line but is averaging two carries per game inside the 10-yard line, tied for No. 3 among running backs. Outside of the red zone, his opportunity share and lack of targets are not appealing to me in DFS. With Conner, I would either not roster or have a very small percentage of if doing MME.
4) Leonard Fournette: $6,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 20.76 (No. 6 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 18.02 (No. 4 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.83 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.17 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 64.37 percent
Leonard Fournette Game Log
This is Leonard Fournette‘s first appearance in the index. He is tied for No. 7 among running backs in carries inside the 10-yard line with 1.83 per game, which is higher than some studs such as Ezekiel Elliott and Aaron Jones. Although Fournette is not targeted frequently inside the 10-yard line, he is the goal-line back and is typically going to run the ball inside the 10-yard line. As evidenced in the game log above, his fantasy production has been trending upward from the beginning of the season. Facing a good Chicago defense, and his inconsistencies in scoring fantasy points, I would consider him in tournaments-only this week.
3) Aaron Jones: $7,500 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 23.49 (No. 3 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 18.37 (No. 3 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.67 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.5 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 64.37 percent
Aaron Jones Player Profile
First, look at the image above of Aaron Jones‘ player profile. The best comparable player is Christian McCaffrey. If you are bummed out that McCaffrey is injured, you can play the next best thing! This is how Jones should be viewed and rostered every DFS slate. He is tied for No. 4 for targets inside the 10-yard line, also tied for No. 11 in carries inside the 10-yard line. In addition, he is No.3 on the slate with 19.0 DraftKings points per game and he is No. 4 on the slate with 16.59 FanDuel points per game too. Some fantasy gamers believe Washington has a good defense; Washington is No. 19 in rushing yards allowed per game at 113.5. Jones can be rostered on both sites and both in cash games and tournaments.
2) D’Andre Swift: $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 26.14 (No. 2 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 19.27 (No. 2 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.33 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.5 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 75.44 percent
D’Andre Swift Opportunity and Productivity Metrics
D’Andre Swift is going to be a staple on this list every week because he provides good value. Even in a short-handed week, he is the tenth most expensive running back on the slate yet is tied for No. 2 in targets inside the 10-yard line and is tied for No. 8 in carries inside the 10-yard line. Not to mention outside of the red zone, he is No. 2 among running backs with 7.0 targets per game. Also, Swift still has the groin injury and was limited in practice earlier in the week. If healthy, he is viable in both cash and tournament lineups.
1) Mike Davis: $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 31.73 (No. 1 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 22.38 (No. 1 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.2 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.6 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 61.54 percent
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z22K8ZJPeow
Mike Davis quietly is getting a lot of touches near the red zone. He is tied for No. 2 with 0.6 targets inside the 10-yard line per game, which is more than Ezekiel Elliott, Aaron Jones, and some other premium running backs. He is No. 19 with 1.2 carries inside the 10-yard line per game, but we care more about the targets than the carries anyways. With just a 2.5-percent touchdown rate, more touchdowns have to be on the way. I do not trust Davis in cash games but would have him in my player pool for tournaments.
What About Derrick Henry?
Derrick Henry is a fantasy football stud. He is averaging 30.9 DraftKings points per week and 27.01 FanDuel points per week and is at or near the top in nearly every opportunity and productivity metric among running backs. Henry is averaging 2.5 carries inside the 10-yard line per game. Why is he not on the index? It’s the price.
Henry is $9,000 on DraftKings and $11,000 on FanDuel. That’s $800 more than the next expensive player on DraftKings, Patrick Mahomes. His FanDuel price of $11,000 is $2,200 more than the next expensive player on FanDuel, also Patrick Mahomes. Without factoring in price, he would be No. 8 on DraftKings and No. 6 on FanDuel due to having zero targets inside the 10-yard line.
Although he is so expensive, if you can afford to roster Henry, you should roster him as he is facing a poor Kansas City run defense. People should be able to find enough values in other roster spots to build a lineup with him on DraftKings. On FanDuel, however, I would imagine his percentage rostered to be low because of how expensive he is relative to the field, making him an interesting tournament play as you would have to punt multiple positions to fit him into your lineup.
Just Missed The Cut
DraftKings: Giovani Bernard (23.27), Darrel Williams (20.80), David Johnson (20.74), Devontae Booker (20.00)
FanDuel: Devontae Booker (16.21), Mark Ingram (16.11), Darrel Williams (16.02)
Final Thoughts
The Week 7 byes take away four of the top five players in the index, so we have to dig deeper to find values. In the index, Swift and Jones are the two I am most willing to roster in both cash and tournaments. Mike Davis and Leonard Fournette make for interesting players to have in your tournament player pool, that have the potential for multiple touchdowns in a given week. Derrick Henry is a stud that should be rostered if you can afford it but is outside of the index because he is cost-prohibitive, especially on FanDuel.
We will come back for Week 8 with an update to the index! Best of luck in Week 7!
