Divisional Round Showdown: Giants vs. Eagles

Betting Advice

This is Giants vs. Eagles: Divisional Round Showdown! The No. 7 seeded New York Giants, after stunning the Vikings in Minnesota, play the No. 1 seeded Philadelphia Eagles for the third time this season. The Eagles look to remind everyone why they’re the top dawgs in the NFC by vanquishing their division rival for the third straight time. The matchup is viewable at 8:15 pm EST on FOX. Let’s break it down!

Key Injuries

New York Giants

  • DE Azeez Ojulari (Quad, Questionable)

Philadelphia Eagles

  • CB Avonte Maddox (Toes, OUT)

Injuries and Implications

Both teams enter the contest with bumps and bruises, but nearly every non-IR player will be active for this game. Giants’ starting defensive end Azeez Ojulari has clocked limited sessions all week and is likely to return to action. Eagles’ starting nickleback Avonte Maddox, however, will be sidelined tonight with a toe injury. Josiah Scott, his backup, has allowed 24 receptions on 32 passes defended and will likely be heavily targeted when he is on the field.

Vegas Odds and Trends

New York Giants (+7.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)

Over/Under: 48.5

Implied Point Total: Giants: 20.5 , Eagles: 28.5

Trends

  • The Giants are 4-2 ATS in divisional games this season.
  • The Giants are 7-1 ATS in games where they are road underdogs.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Giants’ last 9 games.
  • Jalen Hurts is 6-1 ATS as a home starter this season.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Philadelphia’s last 14 games at home.
  • Philadelphia are 9-0 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against the Giants.

The New York Giants

Daniel Jones and the starters watched from the sidelines in their most recent matchup as the Eagles’ starters limped their way to a divisional title. In their opening contest, Jones produced a dismal 169 yards passing with one score en route to a 48-22 blowout. He’s failed to cross the 20 fantasy-point threshold in any of his six contests against top-10 defenses in DVOA, but the upside is there. Jones has 169 rushing yards and six total touchdowns in each of his last two games. With his rushing floor and game-breaking ceiling, he’s certainly a target in DFS lineups.

Cody Carpentier put it perfectly on Seth Deiwold’s Writer’s Roundtable podcast when he said, “The Eagles have not yet felt the wrath of Saquon Barkley.” That changes tonight. The super-freak has completely taken over three of the last four games, totaling 362 yards and 4 scores. The once-feared Eagles’ rush defense fell to No. 21 in rushing DVOA and will have to defend Barkley through the ground and the air. Tonight will mark the 10th time Barkley amasses 100 total yards.

Saquon Barkley Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

To paraphrase Mugatu from Zoolander, “Hodgins, so hot right now.” Isaiah Hodgins has scored in five of his six games since becoming a full-time starter in Week 13 and is averaging seven (1.3 red zone) targets per game. He’s proving to be an elite route-winner, posting a 50-percent (No. 10) Route Win Rate and a 57.1-percent (No. 1) Win Rate vs Man. This resurgence will likely bring about the shadow coverage of Darius Slay, making Hodgins a fade at his DFS price and betting lines.

Divisional Showdown Prop No. 1: Saquon Barkley OVER 96.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

My sleeper candidate for tonight’s matchup is Richie James. James, who has taken over the slot role, averages 6.3 targets and 13.2 fantasy points per game since Week 11. He’s also become a red zone weapon, drawing a red zone target in seven of his last eight contests. Last time against Philly, he torched Avonte Maddox for a 7-61-1 receiving line on nine targets. With Maddox out, a team who conceded the most fantasy points per game to slot receivers must find a way to stop James with a backup. James is my favorite captain selection at his price.

Slayton has been an effective target for the Giants, but still has the case of the drops. Despite letting a game-clinching pass fall to the turf, Slayton finished No. 2 on the team to Hodgins in both targets and receiving yards. The veteran is not as crisp of a route runner as his teammates. However, his blazing speed gives him ample cushion at the snap, and the ability to burn his defender deep or break off and find separation is also there. Likely lining up against James Bradberry, who allows 1.05 (No. 4) Fantasy Points per Target, Slayton is a solid value-play in DFS.

Finally, Daniel Bellinger draws an unfavorable matchup against the Eagles’ secondary, who gives up only 6.5 fantasy points per game to the position. Coincidentally, that’s about how many points per game the rookie has averaged this season. He failed to crack 10 fantasy points despite finding the end-zone last week against Minnesota. The rookie can find a place in DFS lineups if you’re building a top-heavy lineup but doesn’t have a great outlook.

The Philadelphia Eagles

After sitting out two games with a shoulder injury, Jalen Hurts returned to the field and put up his worst performance of the season against the Giants’ backups. While this can look like a bad omen for the MVP candidate, it may just be the fuel he needs to put their divisional rival back in their place. The QB1 in fantasy points per game is matchup-proof when healthy, thrashing defenses for 7.8 (No. 4) Adjusted Yards per Attempt and 50.7 (No. 3) rushing yards per game. The toughest matchup to overcome will be the Giant’s ferocious defensive line. If Hurts can avoid taking big hits, we’ll likely see the MVP-level play that we’re used to.

The Giants are less apt at stopping the run, allowing the No. 4-most rushing yards and No. 10-most rushing touchdowns this season to running backs. Enter, Miles Sanders. While the Giants held Sanders to 33 yards in their last contest, Week 14 yielded a 155-yard and two-touchdown eruption. Sanders has gotten it done this season, racking up 4.7 (No. 14) Yards per Carry behind an 81.3 (No. 7) Run Blocking Rating. The Giants have given up the No. 2 most red zone trips per game this season, and that’s where Sanders lives. I expect him to find the endzone and to be a viable DFS play.

Divisional Showdown Prop No. 2: Miles Sanders OVER 0.5 Rushing + Receiving TDs (Underdog)

A.J. Brown is a well-oiled machine, efficiently delivering 3.2 (No. 2) Yards per Route Run and 3.7 Yards After Catch per Target. He dominates the receiving opportunity in Philadelphia and dominates his competition, winning 47-percent of his routes and scoring 11 (No. 2) touchdowns. The return of Adoree’ Jackson, who will shadow Brown for the first time this season, is no damning threat. Brown will route up Jackson the same way CeeDee Lamb did. After the Giants showed their ability to shut down Justin Jefferson, however, I’d pass on Brown’s DFS price.

Devonta Smith is on a tear, averaging 9.2 targets per game since Week 11, and has cleared 100 receiving yards in four of his last six games (Both games where he didn’t were against the Giants). He’s not a separator, but is a YAC monster, making defenders miss on 15.8-percent of touches. He’ll draw a shadow assignment from Fabian Moreau who yielded 17 fantasy points to the sophomore in their last contest. Smith has a safe floor and should clear 12 fantasy points.

Last but not least, Dallas Goedert draws a favorable matchup against a Giants’ defense that has been susceptible to the tight end. T.J. Hockenson torched the Giants for 23 receptions, 138 yards, and two touchdowns in their last two meetings, and the Eagles should look to take advantage of this exposed weakness. We’ve seen the vertical threat and red zone weapon get fed against teams struggling against his position throughout this season, and I expect him to get his looks tonight.

Conclusion

Despite the point spread being set at 7.5 points, I expect this to be a close contest. While the Eagles will be motivated by their Week 18 struggle, the health of Jalen Hurts is certainly in question. The Giants’ defensive front is going to apply the pressure, and the Eagles will need to find ways to keep Hurts away from pressure. Similarly, the Eagles are a far tougher matchup defensively than Minnesota. Brian Daboll will need to continue drawing up schemes that allow them to overcome their losses on the offensive line. I’m taking the Giants to cover in a game I think they will straight-up win.

The point total, in my opinion, is a sharper line. The teams cleared this line in the Eagles’ opening rout but fell far short in their Week 18 matchup. Both teams are going to be well prepared for their third meeting, meaning we may see a defensive-led contest. Both defenses are stout and both offenses prefer to control the ball. While the public is begging for an entertaining shootout, I expect a slower-paced matchup. It won’t make my bet slips, but I’m siding with the under.

Prediction: Giants 23 Eagles 20