Top DFS Flex Value Plays for Week 13

Value Plays

Maximizing your fantasy points per salary dollar is the key to cashing in DFS. If you want to afford the best cash plays on the slate, dumpster diving for underpriced value plays is the way to go. With two RBs priced over $9000 this week, finding cheap pieces will be key to jamming both into the same lineup. Here are the best DFS Flex values for Week 13 based on PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats, metrics, and analytics.

David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears

DraftKings: $5500, FanDuel: $6200

Ever since Tarik Cohen went down in Week 3, David Montgomery has seen an elite role. He has seen a 70.3-percent (No. 9 among qualified RBs) Opportunity Share, 142 (No. 12) carries, and 47 (No. 6) targets thus far. The only knocks on Montgomery have been his lack of scores and efficiency. He’s found the end zone just three (No. 38) times and is averaging just 4.7 (No. 38) Yards per Touch with 3.8 (No. 47) True Yards Per Carry.

David Montgomery 2020 Game Logs

Those concerns won’t be an issue this week, though. Montgomery has a matchup with a Lions defense that ranks No. 30 in Defensive DVOA and has allowed an NFL-worst 21 total touchdowns to RBs. Three-point home favorites, the Bears should have an edge in time of possession, especially with how lifeless the Lions offense has been without Kenny Golladay and D’Andre Swift.

Montgomery is also coming off of his best performance of the season. He compiled 143 total yards on 16 touches and found the end zone. He looked elusive and explosive, ripping off a 57-yard run. Despite his impressive Week 12 outing, his price lagged behind on both sites, making him one of the best point-per-dollar plays this week.

Devontae Booker, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

DraftKings: $5500, FanDuel: $6000

Josh Jacobs is out with an ankle injury, leaving Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard as the only RBs for the Raiders. Richard has been limited to a satellite back role his entire career, while Booker profiles as much, much more. His 5-11, 219-pound frame gives him a 30.5 (57th-percentile) Body Mass Index. He also has above-average athleticism for his size with a 99.5 (62nd-percentile) Speed Score. Booker also has one of the most complete college resume’s we’ve seen, boasting a 40.1-percent (90th-percentile) College Dominator Rating and a 14.3-percent (91st-percentile) College Target Share.

While he was never able to get much going during his Denver days, Booker has flashed talent in 2020. He has a 24.3-percent (No. 23) Juke Rate and a 6.8-percent (No. 4) Breakaway Run Rate on his 70 touches this season. Even when we discount his Breakaway Runs and look at his True Yards Per Carry, he still ranks No. 2 among qualified RBs in that category.

Booker has flashed consistent efficiency while also sporting elite explosiveness with a dominant college profile. Given what he’s shown this season and the state of the Raiders backfield, he will dominate touches against a lifeless Jets team. New York is more of a pass-funnel defense, but Las Vegas is an 8.5-point favorite. They’ll dominate Game Script and Booker will be involved throughout the game. Just like Montgomery, he opens up salary on a tight slate and projects extremely well.

Denzel Mims, WR, New York Jets

DraftKings: $4100, FanDuel: $5500

Denzel Mims‘ signature breakout game is coming. The speedy rookie has now seen eight targets and over 100 Air Yards in three straight games. He also has a 26.4-percent (No. 9) Target Share and a 38.6-percent (No. 8) Air Yards Share despite only five career NFL games played. The fact that his targets didn’t slip with Sam Darnold back under center bodes well for his outlook for the rest of the season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0woZpyOT2wM&t=1s

It’s been tough sledding for Mims against the Patriots, Chargers, and Dolphins over the last three weeks, but now he draws the Raiders. They have a below-average defense, ranking No. 20 in Defensive DVOA, but they will also be without starting safety Johnathan Abram this week. That leaves the 30-year-old duo of Erik Harris and Jeff Heath as the last line of defense. They won’t stand a chance against Mims and his 115.6 (96th-percentile) Speed Score.

Keke Coutee, WR, Houston Texans

DraftKings: $3500, FanDuel: $4800

The fantasy community lost Will Fuller to a PED suspension, but that is giving life to the Keke Coutee truthers out there. Coutee has flashed a strong connection with Deshaun Watson, seeing five or more targets in seven of his 18 career games. He wasn’t able to find the field much this season, but that could have been Bill O’Brien’s ego trying to hold back another talented player. Now that O’Brien is gone and the receiver room is empty, Watson and Coutee will be connecting early and often.

See our suggested Watson-Coutee lineups on PlayerProfiler’s DFS Lineup Genius:

Indianapolis ranks No. 6 in Defensive Passing DVOA, so this matchup isn’t exactly ideal on the surface. The good news is that at 50.5 points, this game has the third-highest total on the slate. The Texans are only 3-point dogs as well, so oddsmakers believe that they’ll have solid production despite Indy’s stout defense. While this defense is far better than years past, Coutee has 34 targets, 25 receptions, 244 yards, and one score in three career games against the Colts.

Anthony Firkser, TE, Tennessee Titans

DraftKings: $2500, FanDuel: $4600

Jonnu Smith is out this week with a knee injury, setting up Anthony Firkser for a near-every-down role. Firkser’s profile is an enigma. He is a bit undersized at 6-2 and only posted an 84.7 (11th-percentile) Speed Score, but he was dominant at the college level. Firkser posted 35.2 percent (94th-percentile) College Dominator Rating and had a 19.5 (88th-percentile) Breakout Age at Harvard. Production is generally a better indicator of talent than athleticism, so we can bank on him in this role.

Anthony Firkser Advanced Stats & Metrics

Firkser does have a solid matchup here as well. The Browns have allowed the third-most receptions and the second-most touchdowns to TEs this season. This game also has the highest total on the slate at 52.5 points. Play volume is the only real concern here given that the Titans only run 31.9 (No. 28) Team Pass Plays per Game, but we’re really just banking on a touchdown in this spot. At his stone-minimum price on DK and his $4600 price on FD, his opportunity cost is minimal.