What happened the morning of July 20th, 2021 is the worst part of the game we love. Football is a violent game, and the people we root for and argue about put their bodies on the line each day for our entertainment, their careers, and their families. Before thinking about fantasy implications, our hearts should rest with Cam Akers.
What makes it even more enraging is the way it happened. Akers’ Achilles did not rupture on a tackle, a cut in the open field, or even during training camp. This is a stark reminder of the rampant uncertainty our game exists within. As demoralizing as it is, fantasy gamers must eventually look forward rather than dwell in a state of helplessness. In order to win, we must leverage our environment as effectively as possible.
In this piece I will discuss Darrell Henderson‘s 2021 prospects. More critically, I will use this as a case study on how to optimize your best ball rosters for tournament winning ceilings.
What to Expect From Darrell Henderson
I am on record stating Cam Akers is ‘better in every facet of the position,’ but I think Darrell Henderson is a fine running back. He finished No. 12 in the NFL in rush yards over expectation per attempt according to brotofantasy. He only averaged 1.16 (No. 37 among qualified running backs) Yards Created Per Touch in 2020, but he posted an impressive 2.14 figure in a small sample in 2019.
Darrell Henderson is an explosive slasher with a great opportunity in 2021
Henderson fits the profile of an undersized, electric slasher. With the right scheme, blocking, and volume, he can be a highly productive fantasy asset. Dating back to Memphis, Henderson has a propensity for big plays, posting two seasons with 8.9 yards per carry. The former Tiger has not been relied on heavily as a pass catcher in college or the NFL, but was reasonably efficient when called upon. He posted 295 yards on 24 targets in his final college season, and an acceptable 9.7 yards per reception with 6.5 yards per target in 2020.
Whether Los Angeles brings in another competent running back, and whether his own passing down role expands, will define Henderson’s 2021 ceiling. The fact that he’s never reached a 60.0-percent Snap Share tells us it’s unlikely he possesses a ceiling in the range of Akers.’ Nonetheless, this is a capable player on a top offense thrust into immense opportunity.
Darrell Henderson: Arbitrage All-Star
Arbitrage is an economics term which refers to the purchase and sale of products in misaligned markets to create profit. It is too early to say if Henderson will be a league winner, but he is already a textbook case of arbitrage. Beginning today, the Rams new RB1 will skyrocket up draft boards until likely settling in as an RB2 in the middle rounds barring a major addition by Los Angeles. This is a long climb from his current 127.1 Underdog ADP (editors note: in the day and a half since this piece was first written, Henderson’s ADP has already risen to 92.1). We cannot yet say whether teams who draft him from this day forward will receive value on their choice. However, if Darrell Henderson performs in line with his new ADP, anyone who has already drafted him gained a massive edge.
With over 60,000 entries filled, 5,000 teams in Best Ball Mania II roster Henderson. Your odds of drafting him after today’s news and building a better team than any of those are low. There are only two outcomes for a team drafting Henderson today:
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1) Henderson fails at ADP or is relatively insignificant making your selection a mistake.
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2) Henderson crushes ADP, and will be among the highest rostered players in the BBM playoffs. Your team, should you make it, will compete against several other Henderson teams with better rosters around him.
In order to win first place, either of these outcomes diminish your odds.
Darrell Henderson is now the best pick of the last 60,000 entries, and the stone worst pick of each entry yet to come.
Was Drafting a Handcuff the Right Call?
There were plenty of incomprehensible takeaways in the aftermath of the Cam Akers injury, ranging from insensitive to illogical.
Because PlayerProfiler has rigorous standards of analysis, we do not propagate hindsight bias. Let’s look back and discuss Darrell Henderson‘s profile prior to his draft choice. Is there an actionable takeaway here or random luck?
First off, I am strictly against handcuffing your own player. No team with Akers and Henderson on it came out ahead in any format with this news. The more interesting debate is whether you should be rostering high-cost handcuffs such as Henderson or Tony Pollard in the first place. Many say no, and in most cases I agree.
We know handcuffs, defined by J.J. Zachariason as running backs with a teammate drafted in the top 24 overall, are rarely breakout studs. In a 12-person best ball league, investing a Round 10-11 pick in Pollard or Henderson was a low probability play.
Handcuffs often fail because they require three outcomes to hit a ceiling high enough to justify taking one over backs with greater projectable volume:
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An injury to the starter.
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The backup to receive a major role.
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The backup to perform well in the larger role.
This is the time I inform you I’m sitting on an above market, 14-percent exposure to Henderson in tournaments. Why?
My attitude in best ball tournaments is one of ceiling over everything. I outlined my reasoning for assuming ceiling outcomes over likely ones in the piece below. Let’s dig deeper on how Henderson plays into that and the best way to employ players like him.
The Power of Assumptions
The tweet thread below shows two of my Darrell Henderson rosters in Best Ball Mania II (BBM) on Underdog (promo code: UNDERWORLD). In it, I discussed ‘drafting as if you’re right’ and how it can lead to the highest upside entries into a best ball tournament when outcomes such as today’s occur.
When I say “draft as if you’re right” this is what I mean.
There will now be 4 types of team with Henderson in BBM:
– Those who cuffed to Akers (DOA)
– Those who take him post-injury (-EV)
– those who marginalize his use by drafting him as pure depth
– Teams like these 🔽 pic.twitter.com/7AYfexgKdr— Jakob Sanderson (@JakobSanderson) July 20, 2021
Part II of my series on applying DFS lessons to best ball will address differences between the formats. A key shift is how the stages element of best ball affects how you build teams. For 14 weeks, you compete against teams who don’t have any of your players, but for the last three you compete against teams increasingly likely to roster the same league winners you used to get there.
Your theory of roster construction should be “how do I build the best possible team around my league winning assets?”
Drafting the best team around Henderson means assuming the best outcome for him.
Taking Henderson over backs with more protectable volume is an admission you see a higher ceiling in him than those players. Kenyan Drake, Jamaal Williams and Nyheim Hines were available at or after Henderson’s ADP and each projected for a higher snap and touch share. I am of the opinion Henderson possesses a borderline RB1 weekly ceiling with Akers out, something none of those backs compare with. I feel even stronger about Pollard and A.J. Dillon.
What Darrell Henderson Team are You?
No one would ever predict a pre-season Achilles tear, but each time I pressed the button on Darrell Henderson, I was assuming Akers is out of the lineup for Weeks 15-17. This led to my Henderson teams (examples in previous tweet) being more fragile than most. Let’s zero in on one. My running back room (below) is extremely thin. This team draws dead if none of Ezekiel Elliott, Aaron Jones, or Cam Akers get injured.
I am not taking an iota of credit for ‘predicting’ this. If I could have, I would not have 29-percent exposure to Akers in dynasty. But I will present a notion of how to properly build around players like Henderson, Tony Pollard, or A.J. Dillon. These players either reach the ceiling you drafted them for, or they’re likely bad picks. If you take one, build under the assumption their ceiling hits.
If it does for any of my complimentary backs, I want their points used as efficiently in my lineup as possible (i.e. alongside the best group of receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks).
At the front end, I’m drafting Jonathan Taylor to fill the RB1 slot nearly every week. Coupled with a high-powered receiver room and top five tight end, this team could have survived poor weeks at RB2 during the first 14 weeks. After Akers’ injury, it is not only set up to win my 12-man league, it is set up better than any Henderson team who marginalized him within their structure.
Every Henderson manager got a major boost today, but I expect many wish they could swap one of their other backs for a better wide receiver or tight end to rebalance their structure. If he is a league-winning asset, teams set up like the one above will have the greatest edge come playoffs.
The Final Word
We do not know if the best team in Best Ball Mania will roster Darrell Henderson, but we now know the best Darrell Henderson team has already been drafted.
There are four general types of Henderson team:
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1) Handcuffed him to Cam Akers (dead on arrival)
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2) Drafted him at his post-Akers ADP (severely outgunned)
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3) Picked him in Round 11 and treated him as such (high value but ill-constructed in hindsight)
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Picked him in Round 11 but treated him at his new ADP (best positioned to win)
I take no credit or joy in this outcome. The way I’ve been drafting is no better or worse strategy today than it was last week. It’s entirely possible drafting these players was and is bad process, but if you are drafting them, doing so with the power of assumptions is the best way to execute it.
