Chris Carson was the featured lock-button play of Week 15 and he rewarded us with 133 yards and two touchdowns. We also hit on Ryan Tannehill and Zach Ertz, who both finished in the top-five at their position. Deebo Samuel was a massive disappointment, as was Ian Thomas. Finally, Dalvin Cook and Chris Godwin were having productive afternoons before suffering injuries. Week 16 presents eight more lock-button players primed for success. These players should be in your lineups based on usage, opportunity, matchups, advanced stats and metrics. Let’s assume PPR scoring with four points per passing touchdown.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
Matchup: Browns
Lamar Jackson is the ultimate weekly lock-button play at quarterback, no matter the salary. He has failed to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback just twice in 14 games and has finished in the top-two seven times. It’s no surprise then, that he is first among all quarterbacks in Fantasy Points Per Game. Jackson leads the league in passing touchdowns and is top-five in True Passer Rating, but he does his most impressive work with his legs. He is first among all quarterbacks in rush attempts, red zone carries and rushing yards. In Week 15, he broke Michael Vick‘s single-season rushing record for a quarterback. Continue to roll with Jackson as the best quarterback play every week.
Chris Carson, RB, Seahawks
Matchup: Cardinals
Chris Carson was the chalk play of Week 15 and there is no reason not to go back to him again in Week 16. He ran for 133 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries in the 30-24 win over the Panthers. He draws another favorable matchup this week against against the Cardinals, who allow 27 Fantasy Points Per Game to running backs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmnMsJHv_bc
In their Week 4 contest, Carson topped 100 yards on the ground and added four receptions for 41 yards. This game has the highest projected point total of the week with the Seahawks 9.5-point favorites at home. That bodes well for Carson, who will continue to dominate the backfield touches with running-mate Rashaad Penny on injured reserve. He is a bit pricier on both platforms than he was last week, but he is well worth the cost of admission in another slam-dunk matchup.
Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
Matchup: Jaguars
Julio Jones had his best outing of the season in Week 15, with 13 receptions for 134 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers. It was good for a 38.4-point fantasy performance and an overall WR1 finish for the week. Jones took advantage of Calvin Ridley’s trip to injured reserve, receiving 20 targets for a whopping 51-percent Target Share.
Check out Julio Jones on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
He won’t see that insane level of volume again, especially with tight end Austin Hooper another week removed from his knee injury, but Jones should continue to see a significant share of Matt Ryan’s targets. He will take full advantage, the way he has done his whole career, especially against Jacksonville’s struggling defense.
Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons
Matchup: Jaguars
In the two weeks since returning from a knee sprain, Austin Hooper hasn’t been the dominant TE1 that he was prior to the injury. He is still seeing six targets per game, including four in the red zone, and he nearly had the game-winning touchdown in Week 15 before it was overturned on review. With No. 2 wide receiver Calvin Ridley on injured reserve, the target volume should be there for Hooper, who ranks sixth among tight ends in targets and third in Fantasy Points Per Game. He is top-five in receptions, yards after the catch, Target Separation and red zone receptions, despite three games missed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maWlnOOaUxM&t
Because he hasn’t posted a TE1 performance since Week 8, Hooper has fallen to $4,400 (TE10) on DraftKings and $6,000 (TE11) on FanDuel. With Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Tyler Higbee off the main slate, Hooper becomes the most intriguing tight end play for Week 16. He should command a significant Target Share against the struggling Jaguars defense.
Other Locks:
Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks vs Cardinals: No team allows more Fantasy Points Per Game to quarterbacks than the Cardinals.
DeAndre Washington, RB, Raiders at Chargers: With Josh Jacobs out, Washington will dominate the backfield touches against a Chargers defense that allows 26.2 Fantasy Points Per Game to running backs. He is priced at just $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks vs Cardinals: The Cardinals secondary is awful, especially against slot receivers. With the high point projection, there is plenty of opportunity for both Lockett and Chris Carson to have big days.
Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles vs Cowboys: Ertz will continue to dominate the Target Share in this must-win game. The Cowboys are bottom-five in the league in defending tight ends.
