The 2023 NFL Draft is coming up, and with free agency already days old, teams are looking at what prospects can plug their roster holes next. The Breakout Finder app has now released 2023 Breakout Ratings for the 2023 wide receivers and running backs class. In this piece, I will highlight some of the Breakout Finder’s favorite prospects from the class.
Some favorites like Roschon Johnson and Charlie Jones have already been touched on in my colleagues’ articles on Breakout Finder Values and Surprises. Here, I will cover the top players based on Breakout Rating, as well as “Risers,” or players that rank higher on Breakout Rating amongst the class than most rankings in the industry have them.
Breakout Finder Favorite Wide Receivers
Breakout Finder Best: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
With a Breakout Rating of 59.9, Jaxon Smith-Njigba stands above the rest of the 2023 wide receiver class. He has a Breakout Rating similar to Drake London and just below Ja’Marr Chase. Smith-Njigba also has similar Athleticism and Agility Scores to slot receivers Julian Edelman and Brandin Cooks, who have played from both the slot and the outside.
Tired: Jaxon Smith-Njigba didn't run the 40 because he's slow.
Wired: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has all-world agility. pic.twitter.com/csoTSF5VRd
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) March 5, 2023
As a sophomore, Smith-Njigba grabbed 95 receptions with a Breakout Age of 19. His College Target Share is 16.1-percent (33rd-percentile), but he had a 22.7-percent Target Share as a sophomore. He was outperforming Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, two first-round picks at that age. The Breakout Finder likes Smith-Njigba to be the top WR of this year’s class.
Breakout Finder Riser: Zay Flowers
The most notable higher-than-consensus WR ranking from the Breakout Ratings was actually Zay Flowers. Flowers ranks No. 2 in Breakout Rating in this WR draft class, while consensus ranks often find him in the No. 3 to No. 5 receiver range. While his size is often used as a knock against him, he saw high usage and production at Boston College. Flowers has a 29.6-percent (89th-percentile) College Target Share and 46.7-percent (94th-percentile) College Dominator Rating. He is currently going in the late first/early second round of SuperFlex rookie drafts, with the expectation he goes in the late first round of the NFL draft. The Breakout Finder likes Flowers more than other top-tier receivers except for Smith-Njigba in this class.
Favorite Running Backs
Breakout Finder Best: Bijan Robinson
Having a Breakout Rating of 80.8, Bijan Robinson is not only the top running back but the top player in this year’s class for Breakout Rating. He ranks second to only Saquon Barkley out of RBs from the last six draft classes. Robinson’s Best Comparable is Marshawn Lynch, dominating his competition with a similar build and workout metrics as Lynch.
Bijan Robinson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
He had a 20-touchdown season in his last year at Texas with his Breakout Year coming as a Freshman. With a College Dominator Rating and Speed and Burst Scores all in the 82nd-percentile or above, he has established himself as the top back of his class. Robinson is the Breakout Finder’s top player of this year’s class.
Breakout Finder Riser: Evan Hull
Ranking No. 9 among RBs with a 23.4 Breakout Rating, Evan Hull is rising in the 2023 draft class. He comes out of Northwestern with receiving pedigree, earning a 17.3-percent (97th-percentile) College Target Share.
Catching 88 passes for over 800 receiving yards his last two seasons of college, Hull profiles as a satellite or third-down back. For fantasy, he looks to get Rex Burkhead or J.D. McKissic-type usage. As a prospect, Hull is valued as a Day 3 selection, going in the third round at best in fantasy rookie drafts. The Breakout Finder likes Hull better than consensus, making him a good target to bet on.
