Betting the Spread: NFL Week 8 – We’re Back Again

This is Betting the Spread NFL Week 8 in the NFL! Here’s the good news: we had another winning week! That makes three of the last four weeks victorious against Las Vegas. That’s awesome! The bad news is we only went 7-6 again. We’re still below .500 for the season at 44-55-2. However, we’re making progress, and that’s all that matters here. All we’re trying to do here is win bets and fantasy matchups. We’re in the thick of the NFL season now. We should know by now which teams are good, which ones aren’t, and what these teams’ tendencies are. This should help us not only hit more bets but also find out who is poised for big fantasy performances. I feel like we’re about to make a big push here. Let’s get Week 8 rolling!

Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

Over/Under: 40

Pick ATS: Jacksonville Jaguars

They had us in the first half. I’m not gonna lie. However, we made it through to the other side. Congrats to everyone that held or bought low on Travis Etienne. Etienne has run for at least 71 yards in each of his last three games including the 114 and his first-ever touchdown last week against the New York Giants. He’s averaging 7.97(!) yards per rush in that span. He leads all running backs in yards per touch (6.9). It’s not just big plays Etienne is popping off either. He’s No. 9 in the NFL in true yards per carry (5.3). Basically, if you look up a stat on PlayerProfiler.com, chances are Etienne ranks favorably.

Travis Etienne dominated the opportunity and the Giants. After playing 80-percent of the team’s snaps, and playing well, Jacksonville pounced on the chance to receive extra draft capital and shipped James Robinson to the New York Jets for a conditional sixth-round pick. This is Etienne’s entire backfield. That could mean more work in the passing game. Etienne’s target share (9.7-percent), routes run (103), and route participation (41.7-percent) all rank outside the top 20 among running backs. However, he’s No. 3 in yards per reception (10.8) and No. 12 in yards per route run (1.47). More, even if it’s only a little more, should come his way. At a minimum, Etienne is now a top-ten fantasy running back, and he’s ranked even higher in dynasty. You love to see it.

Carolina Panthers (+4) vs Atlanta Falcons

Over/Under: 41

Pick ATS: Carolina Panthers

The answer to the Chuba Hubbard – D’Onta Foreman quandary was both, apparently. Both gashed the leaky Buccaneers’ defense, but I don’t expect that to be the case going forward. I still prefer Hubbard to Foreman going forward primarily because of Hubbard’s pass-catching. Hubbard had 37 targets last season as a rookie. Foreman has 24 in his career. Hubbard has three games with at least three receptions to Foreman’s one. Hubbard handled himself admirably in McCaffrey’s absence last year. He exceeded 50 yards in half of his 10 starts last year. Hubbard got to 63 last week. 

That is, as long as he’s healthy. Hubbard was ruled out this week with an ankle injury. Step up, D’Onta Foreman. Atlanta’s run defense ranks No. 26 in rush defense DVOA according to Football Outsiders. He’s now a locked-in RB2 play this week.

Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys (-10)

Over/Under: 42.5

Pick ATS: Dallas Cowboys

Do you want more Khalil Herbert? Well, you’re getting it. Head coach Matt Eberflus said after the Bears’ Monday Night beatdown over the New England Patriots that both Herbert and David Montgomery will continue to split reps.

Eberflus said the Bears really like their 1-2 punch with David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, who were relatively even with rushing attempts vs. NE. "We're going to continue to do that…going to continue to use both of those guys."

— Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) October 26, 2022

And why wouldn’t they want to get Khalil Herbert more work? He’s only *puts on reading glasses* No. 4 among running backs in true yards per carry (5.5), No. 3 in yards per touch (6.5), No. 6 in yards created per touch (4.19), and No. 9 in juke rate (43.2-percent). Herbert has only two games with at least 15 touches and is still No. 18 in fantasy scoring among running backs. In summary: Herbert is really good. He will continue to be as long as he’s healthy. Herbert may not overtake Montgomery in terms of owning the backfield, but he’s probably overtaken him in terms of who you’d start in fantasy. Both Herbert and Montgomery are solid low-end RB2s or high-end flex plays.

Also, happy Tony Pollard for those who celebrate. Ezekiel Elliott is doubtful for this matchup. The Bears are No. 24 in rush defense DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Pollard dropped an Austin Ekeler-esque 12-69-2; 9-6-63 nuke in his only-ever NFL start. It’s finally, and miraculously time, for Tony Pollard SZN. I can’t wait!

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs Detroit Lions

Over/Under: 51.5

Pick ATS: Miami Dolphins

Mike Gesicki is an intriguing add this week. First of all, he’s playing more. He’s played in at least 61-percent of the team’s snaps the last two weeks. The only week he played that much was Miami’s comeback win against Baltimore in Week 2. Secondly, the matchup is great. The Lions have either conceded a touchdown and/or allowed at least 49 yards to a tight end in every game except against the Minnesota Vikings. Lastly, there’s still a very good chance Gesicki is traded.

He’s currently playing on a franchise tag, and the Dolphins’ coaching staff values blocking at the tight end position. This is not Gesicki’s strength. That’s not to say that they’ll totally overlook pass-catching for essentially another lineman, but we’ve seen Gesicki be relegated to the bench in order to bolster the Dolphins’ run game. They don’t seem to value Gesicki enough to pay him what he wants and risk losing him for only a compensatory pick. Gesicki has some outs. He’s a worthwhile start this week and could see his value rise in a new situation. In the highest over/under game of the week, Gesicki is well worth a start.

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs Arizona Cardinals

Over/Under: 49

Pick ATS: Minnesota Vikings

It will be most intriguing to see if Robbie Anderson is featured more prominently in the Cardinals’ offense this week. Less so for Robbie Anderson, and more so for Rondale Moore. Moore’s usage was questionable last week against the Cardinals.

Rondale Moore in Week 4: 16.1% target share; 39% of snaps from the slot; 3.7 PPR points

Week 5: 21.1% TS; 84% slot snaps; 13.1 points

Week 6: 27.8% TS; 71% slot snaps; 10.9 points

Week 7: 6.9% TS; 14% slot snaps; 4.1 points

Almost like he's not a perimeter WR.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 21, 2022

As the great JJ Zachariason points out, Moore has played in four games this season: twice predominantly in the slot, and twice predominantly outside. He’s been much better in the slot. Moore averaged 1.5 yards per route run in the two games he mostly played in the slot. That’s not a great number, but it’s also not a terrible one. In the other two games, he’s mostly played outside. 0.75 yards per route run is a terrible number. Moore is literally twice as efficient running routes from the slot as opposed to on the outside. Someone tell Kliff Kingsbury.

Another 11 days of Robbie Anderson learning the offense should help Anderson get up to speed and on the field. It is worth remembering the two games Moore played outside were abnormalities. A.J. Green missed one of those games and DeAndre Hopkins was still suspended. While last week’s game against the Saints was off the heels of Marquise Brown‘s injury, and Robbie Anderson had only been on the team for a couple of days. I’m expecting Moore to return to the slot and be a factor in this offense. I’d play him if you have him. Just brace for Kliff to Kliff.

Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) vs New Orleans Saints

Over/Under: 50

Pick ATS: Las Vegas Raiders

Andy Dalton is officially the Saints’ starting quarterback, regardless of health. Jameis Winston is his backup. It stinks for Winston because I don’t think he’s gotten a fair shake during his time in New Orleans. However, it is great for Alvin Kamara. Winston is a chucker and loves to push the ball downfield. He leads quarterbacks in air yards per attempt with 11.4. Dalton isn’t so cavalier. He is surprisingly No. 10 in air yards per attempt, but his 8.5 air yards per attempt is almost three full yards below Jameis. 

This has led to a lot more dump-offs for Alvin Kamara. Kamara has played three games with Dalton under center. In those three games, Kamara has 24 targets. He’s *averaging* eight targets per game! Kamara has played in eight games with Winston under center dating back to last season. He only has 44 targets in those games. Now, 5.5 targets per game for a running back is still nothing to sneeze at, but Kamara has below that average for half of those games. We’re not used to that low a volume of targets for Kamara. Eight a game is more like it. Now, we just need Taysom Hill to stop vulturing touchdowns. Kamara has 101 touches but has yet to cross the goal line. That will come. Dalton’s dump-offs vault Kamara back to his typical RB1 status. Play him with all the confidence in the world.

(Sidenote: the Eagles are not trying to trade for Kamara. Move on from that.)

New England Patriots (-2.5) vs New York Jets

Over/Under: 40.5

Pick ATS: New England Patriots

What is the saddest song you know? Whatever it is, bump it as you read this. Sigh. Breece Hall. Our beloved prince is now gone for the season after suffering a torn ACL and a meniscus injury. His season is over. Ugh. Damn it! Why can’t we have nice things?

Anyway, life goes on, and the Jets still have an offense they have to score points with. I’m not sure how they do it. Trading for James Robinson will help matters, but he’s not Breece Hall. Neither is Michael Carter. There are a million stats I could show to prove this, but here’s one that sticks out. Breece Hall has nine breakaway runs (carries of 15 or more yards) this season. James Robinson and Michael Carter have combined for eight. Hall registered only 80 carries this season. Robinson and Carter have 147 between them. While a 5.4-percent breakaway run rate is still inside the top 30 of running backs, it’s going to be hard to replace Hall. The Jets had only 16 points last week. Hall had their only touchdown (a 64-yard run, at that). 

Zach Wilson

If the Jets aren’t going to get the same efficiency from their run game, then Zach Wilson is going to have to step up. The key is to keep him clean in the pocket. When he’s clean, Wilson is a good quarterback. When he isn’t, he’s a pumpkin.

Zach Wilson's pressure splits are freaking mind blowing this season.

PFF Grade when kept clean: 89.6
PFF Grade under pressure: 23.0

YPA kept clean: 9.1
YPA under pressure: 1.7

Comp % kept clean: 75.7%
Comp % under pressure: 16.1%

aDot kept clean: 6.4
aDot pressure: 12.7

— Sam Monson (@SamMonsonNFL) October 25, 2022

I feel obligated to point out that the Jets lost their start guard Alijah Vera-Tucker for the season too. So, how are the Jets going to score points, exactly? I’m not sure how. Despite a plethora of weapons, even without Hall, I’m not sure there is a Jet worth starting. If Robinson plays, he and Carter will split time in what looks to be a bad offense moving forward. You hate to see Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson relegated to this. I thought Wilson would make a jump and the Jets would have a potent offense. Without Hall and Vera-Tucker, I am not very optimistic.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5)

Over/Under: 43

Pick ATS: Philadelphia Eagles

It is really hard to find an argument to play a single Steeler this week. The Eagles’ pass defense ranks No. 2 according to Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA metric. Their run defense does rank No. 22, so *maybe* they ride Najee Harris. However, the Eagles’ front should engulf Pittsburgh’s offensive line. Harris is only averaging 3.3 true yards per carry and 3.5 yards per touch this season anyway. Diontae Johnson will see Darius Slay, and George Pickens will go against James Bradberry. No tight end has registered over 50 yards against this Eagles’ defense. If you can, stay away from this Steelers’ offense this week. On the other hand, Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Yeah, play them.

Tennessee Titans (-3) vs Houston Texans

Over/Under: 40.5

Pick ATS: Tennessee Titans

The Houston Texans are dead last in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA metric. Jonathan Taylor, Khalil Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Travis Etienne, and Josh Jacobs all exceeded 100 yards of offense against the Texans. Taylor, Herbert, and Jacobs all ran for at least 140 yards against the Texans. Now, Derrick Henry comes to town. Want to know his last three rushing-yard totals against the Texans? 212, 250, and 211 yards. Ryan Tannehill is banged up. You can’t script a monster game better than this. Hammer your life savings on Derrick Henry‘s rushing prop (101.5 on Underdog) this week.

Washington Commanders (+3) vs Indianapolis Colts

Over/Under: 39.5

Pick ATS: Washington Commanders

Just when you thought you could *finally* get excited about a Parris Campbell breakout, the Colts make a quarterback change. The Colts finally shifted to a quick-hitting passing game that maximized Parris Campbell‘s strengths. He had a line of 23-17-127-2 over the last two weeks. He entered Week 6 with a 15-11-112 line for the season through five games. I have no idea what Sam Ehlinger‘s tendencies are and will be, but I’m not expecting Campbell’s raucous last two weeks to continue.

I bet the Colts go back to becoming a more run-heavy team and needed Ehlinger’s mobility to freeze linebackers and edge rushers to help free running lanes for Jonathan Taylor. The Tom Savage corollary should serve Michael Pittman through this switch-up, but I think it means the end of Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce being fantasy relevant. I’d love to be proven wrong. Campbell is one of my stashes, after all. I just find it hard to get excited about him after this QB change.

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) vs Los Angeles Rams

Over/Under: 42.5

Pick ATS: San Francisco 49ers

Van Jefferson is back for the Rams. While that might not seem like a big deal, his 4.39 speed has been sorely missed on this Rams offense. Last season, Matthew Stafford averaged 8.6 air yards per attempt. That ranked No. 6 among quarterbacks. This season, that number has dwindled to 6.6 air yards per attempt, No. 31 among quarterbacks. An absolutely ravaged offensive line is partially to blame there, but so is the lack of speed around Cooper Kupp.

Kupp’s done his part, but no one else has stepped up in this Rams’ receiver room to make things easier on him. Allen Robinson is only generating 1.24 yards of separation this season, which ranks No. 86 among receivers. Ben Skowronek is deployed like a fullback. Brandon Powell is deployed like a scat back. Tutu Atwell can’t get on the field. Jefferson’s speed can at least keep defenses honest. I wouldn’t recommend starting Jefferson this week against the 49ers, but he should make life easier for Stafford, Kupp, and Robinson and did register 800 yards last year. He will have his weeks as a fantasy option. Add him if he’s available.

New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks (-3)

Over/Under: 44.5

Pick ATS: Seattle Seahawks

These two teams are the Paul Rudd meme telling each other ‘look at us!’ when discussing how this is the only game featuring two teams with a winning record. This is also only one of two matchups that feature two teams in the top ten of Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA metric. Football man. Anyway, we should highlight Marquise Goodwin. Metcalf was hurt last week and seems doubtful to play this week.

Enter Goodwin, still as fast as his 4.27 40-yard dash he ran in 2013 indicates. We know the Giants blitz a lot; entering last week’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, John Shipley of Sports Illustrated pointed out that the Giants blitz 42.5-percent of the time according to Pro Football Reference. That could be a problem because Geno Smith is a god now and is good when under duress. His 51.2-percent completion percentage when pressured is No. 6 in the NFL according to PlayerProfiler.com. His 7.2 accuracy rating under pressure is second. 

Fortunately for Marquise Goodwin, Geno Smith has also been great at throwing deep. He has the No. 5-best completion percentage throwing deep in the NFL. Smith is No. 1 in true completion percentage too. Geno is awesome. That should help both Tyler Lockett and Goodwin. Though the Giants give up the No. 3-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, they do rank No. 26 in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA metric.

The Giants haven’t faced many stacked receiver rooms. It certainly helps to escape Metcalf, but this Seahawks offense is humming on all cylinders. Lockett is a surefire WR2 at worst, but Goodwin is a legit flex play with upside. All he needs is one play. He might score 20, but he also might score two. But I think Goodwin (rostered in only 30-percent of Sleeper leagues) is in for a good week this week.

Green Bay Packers vs Buffalo Bills (-11)

Over/Under: 47

Pick ATS: Buffalo Bills

Aaron Rodgers is frustrated. He has a right to be. No one is getting open for the Packers. The Packers’ receiver target separation of 1.94 yards ranks No. 22 in the NFL according to PlayerProfiler.com. That in turn, has shifted the Packers into an almost exclusive dink-and-dunk pass attack. Rodgers is averaging 6.9 air yards per attempt. That’s not nice. In fact, that’s No. 28 in the NFL. As a Packers fan, and someone who routinely charts Packer games for PlayerProfiler, that tracks.

Rodgers had five of his 35 passes last week travel beyond 10 yards downfield. Two of them were scramble/free plays, and another came on the second-to-last play of the game, sans a spike. It’s a bad offense, and one Aaron Rodgers himself is partially responsible for. And now they’re going to Buffalo to play the No. 4-ranked defense fresh off a bye week? No thanks. Allen Lazard is out, so hopefully, Christian Watson (rostered in 17-percent of Sleeper leagues; he’s worth stashing if you have room) can return and get some speed on the field. But no one except for Aaron Jones should be started in this offense for fantasy this week. Feed Aaron Jones!

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs Cleveland Browns

Over/Under: 45

Pick ATS: Cincinnati Bengals

Ja’Marr Chase is out for 4-6 weeks. Brutal. Devastating. Hopefully, he returns to full health in no time, and the Bengals don’t rush him back (they probably will). In the meantime, Tyler Boyd gets a bump to become an every-week WR2. Tee Higgins, who now is a top-12 receiver at minimum, has missed or partially played in four games since Chase was drafted in 2021. Boyd is averaging 13.98 PPR points per game in those games. The Browns rank No. 28 in pass defense DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Fire up all the Tyler Boyd.

On the other side, it’s worth stashing D’Ernest Johnson. Johnson currently averages 5.26 yards per carry for his career and has averaged 5.86 yards per carry in the four games he’s toted at least 10 carries. Kareem Hunt is on the trade block, and it seems more likely than not that he’s dealt. Hunt registered at least 13 opportunities (carries + targets) in each of Cleveland’s four games before dipping to 12 total in the last two games. There’s a path to Johnson becoming a flex play the instant Hunt is dealt if that happens. If it doesn’t happen on Tuesday, you’ll know in time to pivot before waivers run. Johnson is rostered in only 8-percent of Sleeper leagues. Why not see what happens if you have the room?

BYE WEEKS: Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers

This is fortunately a light week for byes. The problem is two of the best offenses are off this week: the Chiefs and Chargers. The pickings for bye-week stashes are slim, but there are still out there. 

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs (48-percent rostered in Sleeper Leagues)

There’s no reason why Isiah Pacheco is this readily available. Getting on the field is the start toward Pacheco taking over this backfield. I don’t think he’ll ever be deployed as a true three-down back. Jerick McKinnon seems to have the third-down role on lock. But the Chiefs are still arguably the best offense in the NFL and a guy with a 98th-percentile speed score is becoming more involved in it. If Clyde Edwards-Helaire can get gifted touchdowns, Pacheco can too. He’s a flex play until he puts Edwards-Helaire out of the offense if that ever happens. He also returns kicks for the Chiefs if you’re in leagues that reward return yardage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43YJv_Srkc4

Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers (33-percent)

How is Josh Palmer this available too? Do people know Mike Williams is out for 4-6 weeks? Palmer himself is IR-eligible on Sleeper platforms; you can add him and stash him there if you have room for it! Palmer hasn’t been great this season. His 1.05 yards per route run ranks No. 85 among receivers. But here are his averages in games Mike Williams or Keenan Allen have missed in Palmer’s brief NFL career: seven targets, 4.67 receptions, 46 yards, and 0.33 touchdowns. Not great, but that’s certainly usable. Scoop him up if he’s on your waiver wire.

Skyy Moore, Chiefs (20-percent)

Maybe this is a lost season for Skyy Moore. He’s fumbled twice on punt returns. Moore’s yet to play more than 35-percent of his team’s snaps. But he’s still a talented receiver in his own right on a great offense. It’s likely not happening this year, but if you have the room, I get holding on.

Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs (14-percent)

McKinnon sneakily has scored at least 7.9 PPR points in three of seven games and at least six in five of seven. That may not seem like a lot, but he still has been the snap leader in the Chiefs’ backfield in all but one game this season. If you’re down bad at running back, you could do worse than pray for a touchdown from Mahomes.

Good luck in Week 8 everyone!

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