We have officially gone through a quarter of the 2022 NFL season. Now it’s time to check in on how the teams in the AFC South are doing. This article will provide you with all you need to know about how the first four weeks went for the AFC South. Also, I will take a look at how my predictions for the season are stacking up so far as well as provide a few more predictions. There have been quite a few surprises so far with the Jaguars impressing, Derrick Henry already back to form, and the Colts offense being bottom of the league in points. Without further ado, let’s take a look at these teams! This is the Post Week 4 AFC South Report!
Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 2-2
Offense Rank:
Points: No. 6
Yards: No. 20
Defense Rank:
Points: No. 4
Yards: No. 14
Top 3 Scorers:
- Trevor Lawrence, QB
- Christian Kirk, WR
- James Robinson, RB
Summary
Sitting at 2-2 currently, the Jaguars have been one of the bigger surprises of the 2022 NFL season. We all knew that eventually Trevor Lawrence would be good, but not many predicted it would be this soon. James Robinson has also shown that the Achilles injury doesn’t bother him. He’s rushed for 259 yards and three touchdowns so far. The defense has been really impressive too, especially rookies Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd. Lloyd has been making a strong case for defensive rookie of the year so far as he’s No. 8 in the league right now in tackles with 38 (tied with teammate Foye Oluokun).
After losing to the Commanders in the season opener, the Jaguars have looked like a playoff team. They shut out the Colts in Week 2, beat the Chargers by 28 in Week 3, and only lost to the undefeated Eagles by seven in a bad weather game. And to be honest, the loss to the Commanders isn’t too terrible given it was the ceiling week from Carson Wentz that randomly pops up over the season. Wentz threw four touchdowns Week 1 and has since thrown four touchdowns in Weeks 2-4 combined. This is a solid football team that will remain competitive all season.
How Were My Predictions?
Well…I had the Jaguars finishing last in the division so there’s that. I felt that they would be a good team but was worried about their tough schedule. Fortunately for them- the AFC West doesn’t seem as daunting as it did over the offseason and the Colts have been terrible. They have been playing well, so if they keep it up and the Colts continue to sputter- this division should be theirs.
In terms of player predictions I was hit or miss. I said that James Robinson was way too undervalued and that has rang true. However, I said that this would be a Prime Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram situation and Travis Etienne has been far from Prime Kamara- at least so far. Etienne is definitely showing promise but James Robinson has full control right now. I also said that Evan Engram would be the surprise player. And well, he’s been surprisingly bad. Christian Kirk and Zay Jones have been impressive and Engram only had 1 catch while Jones was inactive last week. So unfortunately Engram may not pan out to be the value tight end I hoped he would be.
Lookahead
If they keep things up, this division is theirs. The next two weeks they play the Texans and Colts, and should beat both based on how things are going for those teams right now. They’d be 3-0 against the division already and there’s still plenty of room to grow. The two games after that are the Giants and the Broncos, two more teams who are beatable. I will see you guys again in week 8 so that is when I’ll make the final call on what kind of team this is. So far they are promising, and there’s a chance they could go on a little win streak here.
Prediction: Travis Etienne will start to perform at the level he was expected to perform at given his high ADP.
Tennessee Titans
Record: 2-2
Offense Rank:
Points: No. 21
Yards: No. 29
Defense Rank:
Points: No. 25
Yards: No. 26
Top 3 Scorers:
- Derrick Henry, RB
- Ryan Tannehill, QB
- Robert Woods, WR
Summary
The Titans started the year 0-2. They lost to the Giants by one and were blown out by the Bills, losing by 34. Then, Derrick Henry decided to play football and had back-to-back games with over 100 yards and a touchdown.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Because of those efforts, the Titans are now 2-2 with wins over the Raiders and Colts. No one else on this offense is relevant. It’s the Derrick Henry show. The defense has declined as expected since they lost a few key components. You can’t quite use the yards/points allowed against them quite yet because the Bills game was such an anomaly. Otherwise, they have been average for the most part on both sides of the ball this season.
How Were My Predictions?
I had the Titans finishing the year 8-9 and 2nd in the division which seems to be on par for now. They started the year slow, but Derrick Henry put together two games with 100+ yards. As a result, the Titans won twice. As long as Henry is Henry, the Titans will be fine.
I also that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine would prove to be valuable simply by being the most available WR on the team. So far, Kyle Philips and Treylon Burks have sustained injuries, so we will see how it goes rest of season as Westbrook-Ikhine hasn’t done much so far.
I also felt that Hassan Haskins would have a bigger role, but Derrick Henry hasn’t lost a step at all. As a result, Haskins may end up being a player to consider for 2023.
Lookahead
Outside of their blowout loss to the Bills, all of their games have been within one score. I expect that to continue. Their next four games are against the Commanders, Colts, Texans, and the Chiefs. All of those could go either way with this team, but they will likely lose to the Chiefs. If Derrick Henry keeps producing, they could definitely come out of this stretch 3-1. Again, I’ll check back in after Week 8. Then, it will be more clear who this team really is.
Prediction: I’ll stick to my guns on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine becoming a consistent option in this offense.
Indianapolis Colts
Record: 1-2-1
Offense Rank:
Points: No. 32
Yards: No. 19
Defense Rank:
Points: No. 13
Yards: No. 6
Top 3 Scorers:
- Matt Ryan, QB
- Jonathan Taylor, RB
- Michael Pittman, WR
Summary
So far they’ve tied with the Texans, got shut out by the Jaguars, beat the Chiefs(?), and then lost to the Titans. I don’t even know where to begin when evaluating this team. I’ll start with the underwhelming performance of Jonathan Taylor. He’s averaged the No. 23 most fantasy points per game so far and now he has an ankle injury. Those who drafted him at 1.01 are surely disappointed. The Colts have struggled on offense to say the least. Matt Ryan‘s only averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game which is the biggest problem. The defense has been alright as shown by their ranks in points/yards allowed. If the offense begins to click, then this team can definitely get things going.
How Were My Predictions?
This was my big screw up. I was high on the Colts (predicting them to go 12-5) because I was really bullish on Matt Ryan. So far I look horribly wrong, but hopefully they can start to figure things out. Also, hopefully Jonathan Taylor isn’t out too long or else there’s no way that even my “9-8 is their floor” take will be reasonable.
The players I thought would break out were Alec Pierce and Jelani Woods. Pierce has started to trend in the right direction, and Woods had a two touchdown game. They seem to have gotten off on the right foot, and I hope they continue. I also said Yannick Ngakoue and Stephon Gilmore would bring a strong veteran presence to the defense, and they’ve been good enough. The defense looks solid as expected. If the offense gets going, this team can be dangerous.
Lookahead
The Colts have the Broncos, Jaguars, Titans, and Commanders coming up. Coming into the season, I would’ve felt that they would win all four of these, but it’s hard to bet on this team right now. Given their standing right now, these games are must-win. This is especially true given two of them are divisional opponents. They will be missing Jonathan Taylor at least this week, so it really will come down to Matt Ryan. If Ryan gets it together, then they should be okay and probably split these games 2-2.
Prediction: I’m going to keep rolling with Alec Pierce becoming a solid WR2 for this team. He’s looked decent so far.
Houston Texans
Record: 0-3-1
Offense Rank:
Points: 25
Yards: 27
Defense Rank:
Points: 17
Yards: 29
Top 3 Scorers:
- Davis Mills, QB
- Dameon Pierce, RB
- Brandin Cooks, WR
Summary:
Well, the Texans are winless and don’t necessarily excel anywhere. The best part of their resume so far is tying the Colts. They also lost to the Broncos, Bears, and Chargers. The Broncos and Bears haven’t even necessarily been good in their own right, so this team doesn’t have much going for it. However, Dameon Pierce has been a shining light as well as rookie safety Jalen Pitre. Pierce has the No. 15 best average fantasy points per game with 14.4 and has the No. 9 most rushing yards with 313 through four weeks. Pitre already has three tackles for loss, a sack, and two interceptions to his name. Both of these rookies look excellent so far.
How Were My Predictions?
I was slightly higher on them than I should have been. My predicition was they’d win five games. They are definitely not a no-win team, so I expect them to at least get a couple wins under their belt. I also said they’d finish third in the division, but that is because I was lower on the Jaguars than I should have been. Additionally, I was too high on the Texans.
It’s basically the same when it comes to my player predictions. I expected Davis Mills to take a good step forward. He’s been fine but not good enough to elevate the weapons the way the team needs him to. Specifically, I was pretty high on Nico Collins, and he just hasn’t delivered yet. He had a solid performance in Week 4, so hopefully he continues to grow.
Lookahead:
I see no reason for them to win any their next four games as they play the Jaguars, Raiders, Titans, and Eagles. These are all tough opponents, and the Texans haven’t shown enough to make me think they will win. However, this is the NFL, so they could maybe eek out a win. Keep an eye on the aforementioned rookies the next few weeks. Keep an extra sharp eye on Pitre as these opponents are good offenses. Hopefully, they can get Nico Collins rolling as well.
Prediction: To that last point, I think the Texans will get Nico Collins rolling over the next couple games.
