Welcome back to the AFC South Report! 12 weeks of regular season action have come and gone, and I’m here to tell you all about how the AFC has shaped up so far. Also, I will take a look at how my predictions for the season are stacking up so far as well as provide a few more predictions. A lot has happened since the last check-in on Week 8. The Colts brought Jeff Saturday in as their coach, and he reinstated Matt Ryan as the starting QB. The Texans have somehow started to look worse. Malik Willis had his shot but lost it for the rest of this season. And the Jaguars continue to steadily improve especially Trevor Lawrence. Without further ado, let’s take a little bit deeper look into these teams now that there are only a few weeks left.
Tennessee Titans
Record: 7-4
Offense Rank:
Points: No. 26
Yards: No. 29
Defense Rank:
Points: No. 8
Yards: No. 21
Top 3 Scorers:
- Derrick Henry
- Ryan Tannehill
- Dontrell Hilliard
Summary
The Malik Willis Titans actually held up against the Chiefs (Derrick Henry scored twice and had over 100 yards), but Willis just did not do enough to retain the starting job upon Tannehill’s return in Week 13. The Titans are still the worst good team in the NFL as they are clearly beating up on lower opponents and then losing to better teams. Their losses now include the Bengals, Chiefs, Bills, and Giants. And the Giants’ loss was when the Giants were good earlier in the season, and the Titans only lost because they missed a kick. Again, as long as Derrick Henry is good- this team will be good. The Titans are No. 12 in Rush YDs and No. 9 in Rush TDs while being No. 29 and No. 26 in the respective passing categories.
One bright spot has been the emergence of first-round rookie Treylon Burks. He returned from his toe injury in Week 10. In Week 11 he had 111 yards. In Week 12 he had 70 yards and a TD. Burks can be the piece that the Titans need to take their passing game up to the level it should be. Derrick Henry opens up the play action too much for the Titans to only have 11 passing TDs so far. Hopefully, Burks’s return can bring that number up. I think he will.
How Were My Predictions?
I had expected Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to do at least something all damn year- and finally, after Week 8 I gave up on him. Well, in Week 10 he had 119 yards and 2 TDs. Unbelievable. I also felt that the Titans wouldn’t turn away from Malik Willis, and they did. It’s a tough beat because I don’t think the Titans were that much worse with him behind the helm considering they brought the Chiefs to overtime. Ryan Tannehill does bring a much more sure-handed approach though, so I do understand moving back to him and letting Willis continue to learn.
And of course- I have to eat crow about predicting the Titans to be second in the division during the preseason yet again… They should repeat as AFC South champions yet again.
Lookahead
The Titans’ next four games are the Eagles, Jaguars, Chargers, and Texans. They probably lose to the Eagles and maybe the Chargers depending on which Justin Herbert shows up. And we all know how divisional games go, so we can’t entirely write off the Jaguars and the Texans. Okay, the Titans will probably beat the Texans. I expect them to come out of this stretch 2-2 at least.
Their final two games will be against the Cowboys and Jaguars. Both of these will likely have huge playoff implications especially if the Titans do begin to slide a bit and one of the Jaguars or the Colts gets hot.
Prediction: Treylon Burks has a two-touchdown performance before the season ends.
Indianapolis Colts
Record: 4-7-1
Offense Rank:
Points: No. 30
Yards: No. 26
Defense Rank:
Points: No.11
Yards: No. 6
Top 3 Scorers:
- Matt Ryan
- Michael Pittman
- Jonathan Taylor
Summary
The Colts fired Frank Reich after Week 9’s blowout loss to the Patriots and then brought in Jeff Saturday. In Saturday’s coaching debut, he not only made Matt Ryan the starter again but also led the Colts to a win over the Raiders. Most importantly, he also revived Jonathan Taylor who has now scored a TD three weeks in a row and is averaging 19.8 fantasy points per game. While these things are nice, the Colts have also lost back-to-back games since and Matt Ryan hasn’t looked that good. Ryan has averaged 211 pass yards and 0.66 Pass TDs across the last three games. The defense has been the reason the Colts are staying in games. They held the Eagles to only 17 points and continue to at least keep the offense within striking distance. The Colts only have two games lost by more than one possession across their seven losses.
How Were My Predictions?
So bad man, so bad. Alec Pierce had faded to nothing, and the Colts are not winning this division. I was way too high on this team in the preseason and way too high on Matt Ryan. Hopefully, an upgraded offensive line can fix things next season, but this year is toast. My only prediction that has some steam left in it is my belief in Jelani Woods. He’s coming off an eight-catch, 98-yard performance, so hopefully, he can keep the ball rolling.
Lookahead
The Colts will have to take on the Cowboys, Vikings, and Chargers over the next four weeks because they have a Week 14 bye. They probably won’t win any of those given the way they are playing right now. As long as these games are close, Saturday should be able to keep his job going into next season. However, I am curious how the situation will be handled if the Colts get blown out for the rest of the season. Their last two games are against the Giants and the Texans, so even if they do lose these three there’s still a chance they can finish the year with six wins.
Prediction:
Matt Ryan announces he is going to retire at the end of this season sometime soon.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 4-7
Offense Rank:
Points: No. 16
Yards: No. 9
Defense Rank:
Points: No. 14
Yards: No. 24
Top 3 Scorers:
- Trevor Lawrence
- Christian Kirk
- Travis Etienne
Summary
The Jaguars went 2-1 since the last check-in. They have beaten the Ravens and Raiders while losing to the Chiefs. The real excitement has been the decent stretch Trevor Lawrence has been on, and the thrilling Ravens victory in Week 12.
Lawrence has averaged 271.6 pass yards and two TDs over the last three games all while also not turning the ball over. His best performance was last week in a game where Travis Etienne left due to injury. Lawrence may have finally arrived, and at the very least he’s finally starting to trend in a good direction. If they can add more weapons to this offense, they could be dangerous in 2023.
How Were My Predictions?
Back to being pretty bad. Evan Engram had started to be consistent but has produced nothing but duds since Week 8. Travis Etienne was killing it but now he’s hurt again. And the Jaguars themselves have now already hit the four-win mark I predicted them to have in the preseason. They should get at least one more win under their belt this season.
Lookahead
Their next four games are against the Lions, Titans, Cowboys, and Jets. These are all tough games, but I see them at least beating the Jets and potentially even the Lions depending on Etienne’s health for the game. If they can beat the Titans and come out of this stretch 3-1, they might end up having playoff chances. They close out the year against the Texans and Titans, so it’s definitely possible that they go on a little bit of a tear down the stretch. But as things stand I don’t see it happening. They will likely close out the year at or around 7-10
Prediction:
Trevor Lawrence has two more three TD performances this season.
Houston Texans
Record: 1-9-1
Offense Rank:
Points: No. 31
Yards: No. 32
Defense Rank:
Points: No. 23
Yards: No. 29
Top 3 Scorers:
- Davis Mills
- Dameon Pierce
- Brandin Cooks
Summary:
The Texans are just downright terrible. They benched poor Davis Mills for Kyle Allen. Allen didn’t do all that great, and it’s unclear if he will continue to get the start over Mills. In all likelihood though, Mills’ career with the Texans is done as the Texans are virtually guaranteed to get the No. 1 overall pick. They have absolutely nothing going for them as of late. Dameon Pierce was once shining through but now has back-to-back games under five fantasy points. It’s on to 2023 for this team and probably onto 2024.
How Were My Predictions?
Other than being too high on Davis Mills going into the season, my predictions haven’t been too far off. And even though they are off, it’s hard to be correct when a team is this bad. Nico Collins is going to be good with a good QB.
Nico Collins Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
And Brandin Cooks may not have been “unlocked,” but he at least has started to play again after throwing his tantrum. Hopefully, next year will be better for this team, but there’s just nothing to get excited about for these guys.
Lookahead:
Somehow, some way, Deshaun Watson will get his first start after serving his suspension against the Houston Texans. This had to of been by design. It’s definitely going to be fun to watch as there is no better test to see if you are still a good QB than the league doormat Houston Texans. After this, they will continue to be slaughtered with games against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Titans, Jaguars, and Colts to end the season. If they somehow win one of those, I will be surprised.
Prediction:
The Texans don’t win another game and secure the No. 1 overall pick.
