The Most Controversial NFL Mock Draft of 2023
2023 NFL Mock Draft 5.0 (Post-Pro Day Edition)! After a month of a consistent C.J. Stroud drum beat, many big named Draft analysts knew the Bryce Young smoke screen was coming, and one of my favorites, Lance Zierlein was ahead of this. Despite being ahead and knowing it was coming down the hatch, Lance still moved Bryce Young up to No.1 overall in his most recent NFL Mock Draft. “Not so fast, my friend” – Coach Lee Corso. My last NFL Mock Draft featured a trade-up to No.1 for C.J. Stroud, because that was the immediate buzz, while in Indianapolis. It just happened to be Carolina, not Las Vegas that moved up to No. 1.
Since my last Mock Draft in early April, I attended the South Carolina, Clemson, Virginia, and Georgia Pro Days to see prospects like Jalen Carter, Dontayvion Wicks, Darius Rush, and Trenton Simpson, to name a few. The 2023 NFL Draft Rookie Guide is also available now at www.playerprofiler.com/2023-rookie-guide-scouting-report/ for just $10, with 120 Prospect write-ups, grades, comps and workout metrics at QB, RB, WR, and TE.
You can find the 2023 D.A.W.G. Ratings on Patreon. I have since teamed up with Matty Kiwoom, and he has joined my Patreon, patreon.com/Executives for the D.A.W.G. Ratings, exclusive opportunities to mock draft with us, Cornerstone Rankings (2022-2024 classes), and a weekly podcast, “The Executives of.”
Mock Draft 5.0 has the biggest cojones of them all. I will be going three rounds deep, including Comparables across the board via PlayerProfiler.com This mock includes data on the 31 players that are expected to be drafted in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft. If you enjoy it, feel free to share and leave a comment on Twitter @CarpentierNFL, Join Patreon, or Download the Rookie Guide.
Round 1 (Pick 1-32)
No. 1 – Carolina Panthers(via CHI) – Bryce Young, QB – Alabama
Best Comparable – Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
Factoid – The Panthers have drafted a Quarterback in Round 1 just twice, Cam Newton 1st overall in 2011, and Kerry Collins 5th overall in 1995.
Notes – The trade was made after the NFL Combine and all of the conversation was centered around C.J. Stroud. Both players hosted Pro Days and met with the Panthers but only smoke has come from it. Sportsbooks have moved on from Stroud to favoring Bryce Young as the No.1 overall pick. But both prospects are still planning to meet with the Panthers in Charlotte over the next two weeks. Don’t be surprised when the tide turns again, in favor of Stroud. However, for this iteration, I’m taking the bait and drafting Bryce Young.
No. 2 – *Las Vegas Raiders(via HOU) – Anthony Richardson, QB – Florida
Best Comparable – Josh Allen, Wyoming
Factoid – Trey Lance had 318 career pass attempts at North Dakota State, and was drafted at No. 3 overall to eventually overtake Jimmy Garoppolo. Richardson isn’t far ahead, with just 393 career pass attempts at Florida. Rankings No.1 All-Time in Athleticism Score among 272 Quarterbacks on PlayerProfiler.com
Notes – The Texans have two first rounds picks in each of the 2023 and 2024 NFL Drafts, and after this trade down with Las Vegas, they have three in 2024. Richardson is just 20.9 years old, and cemented behind Garoppolo in 2023, just as Mahomes did behind Alex Smith. The ideal scenario for these hyper-upside Quarterbacks that need TIME!! Garoppolo has an out in his contract after the 2023 season with just $18.7 million in dead cap.
Trade – Las Vegas gives No. 7 Overall in 2023, 2024 1st, and 2025 1st for the Houston Texans No. 2 Overall Pick.
No. 3 – *Indianapolis Colts(via ARI) – Will Levis, QB – Kentucky
Best Comparable – Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt
Factoid – It’s only the THIRD time in NFL History that each of the first three picks were Quarterback, 1999 (Couch, McNabb, Smith), and 2021 (Lawrence, Wilson, Lance).
Notes – The defacto starter on Day 1 for Shane Steichan and the Indianapolis Colts. Steichen coached Justin Herbert – 6’6 237 lbs (64.0% College Passing), and Jalen Hurts – 6’1 222 lbs (65.1% College Passing) over the last three seasons. Will Levis enters at 6’4 229 lbs (64.9%).
Trade – Indianapolis gives No. 4 & No. 79 Overall in 2023, and 2024 4th for the Arizona Cardinals No. 3 Overall Pick.
No. 4 – *Arizona Cardinals(via IND) – Will Anderson, EDGE – Alabama
Best Comparable – DeMarcus Ware, Troy
Factoid – Will Anderson is the only Player in College Football History to win the Bronko Nagurski Trophy twice. The Nagurski Trophy started in 1993 and is given to the best defensive players in college football.
Notes – The Cardinals gain the Colts’ 2024 4th, and the No. 79 overall pick while getting the player they want all along in Will Anderson. The Cardinals are a year away with a new coaching staff, and Kyler on the mend, so bolstering this defense has to be Goal No. 1 for first-year coach Jonathan Gannon.
No. 5 – Seattle Seahawks – C.J. Stroud, QB – Ohio State
Best Comparable – Joe Burrow, LSU
Factoid – Ohio State hasn’t had a Quarterback taken in the Top-5 since 1982, The Colts took Art Schlichter at No. 4 overall.
Notes – The Seahawks love Geno Smith, but Smith is 32 years old, and coming off a career year. Over the final 5 games of 2022, Smith completed just 63%. of passes with 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
No. 6 – Detroit Lions(via LAR) – Jalen Carter, DL – Georgia
Best Comparable – Da’Ron Payne, Alabama
Factoid – The Lions selected Defensive Lineman in the Top 15 back-to-back years in 2010, and 2011 (Fairley, Suh) – The Rams did the same in 2011, and 2012 (Quinn, Brockers) with one special National Scout in the room, Brad Holmes. One season later, he was named Director of College Scouting.
Notes – On paper, Christian Gonzalez is a great pick after the Jeff Okudah trade. Detroit needs help on the back end, but there is depth at Cornerback and the Lions also pick at No. 18 in Round 1, I think Cornerback makes sense later.
No. 7 – *Houston Texans(via LV) – Myles Murphy, EDGE – Clemson
Best Comparable – Jermaine Johnson, Florida State
Factoid – Myles Murphy was a pitcher in high school and according to Dane Brugler, threw 90 MPH at age 14. Murphy also went to the same High School as Dolphins Edge Rusher, Bradley Chubb.
Notes – Over the last two seasons, Houston has 71 total defensive sacks. DeMeco Ryans enters the building after leading the 49ers’ defense to back-to-back Top 10 finished and 92 total sacks.
No. 8 – Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson, RB – Texas
Best Comparable – Marshawn Lynch, California
Factoid – During General Manager Terry Fontenot’s career with the New Orleans Saints as a Scout, Director of Pro Scouting, and Assistant General Manager. The Saints selected Reggie Bush as No. 2 overall in 2006, Mark Ingram as No. 28 overall in 2011, and Wide Receiver twice in Round 1. Since joining Atlanta, he has taken Tight End and Wide Receiver in the Top 10.
Bijan Robinson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
No. 9 – Chicago Bears(via CAR) – Paris Johnson Jr, OT – Ohio State
Best Comparable – Dion Dawkins, OT – Temple
Notes – The Bears pick again at 53, 61, and 64 overall on Day 2, and this draft has depth on the Defensive side of the ball. With Teven Jenkins moving to Left Guard this offseason, the Bears need a tackle to protect the young Konami legend, Justin Fields.
No. 10 – Philadelphia Eagles(via NO) – Nolan Smith, EDGE – Georgia
Best Comparable – Bruce Irvin, West Virginia
Factoid – Georgia has never had two defenders go in the Top-10 of the same Draft. It would be the first instance since 2020 that two defenders from the same team go inside the Top 10 (Ohio State) with Chase Young and Jeff Okudah.
Notes – With Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Ndamukong Suh, and Linval Joseph all entering free agency, they need to add talent to the interior. The Eagles are currently over the cap with other areas to focus on. After drafting Jordan Davis in Round 1 of 2022 and Milton Williams in Round 3 of 2021, the Eagles need to continue to add to the defensive line. Lukas Van Ness is another option, but the allure of adding Nolan Smith to a defense that already features Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean from the 2021 Georgia defense, is rather exciting!
No. 11 –Tennessee Titans – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE – Iowa
Best Comparable – Trey Hendrickson, Florida Atlantic
Factoid – Lukas Van Ness never started a game at the University of Iowa.
No. 12 – Houston Texans(via CLE) – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR – Ohio State
Best Comparable – Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
Factoid – Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be the fourth former Buckeye Wide Receiver drafted in the Top-15 in the last two drafts. Marvin Harrison Jr. could be No. 5 in 2024.
No. 13 – New York Jets – Darnell Wright, OT – Tennessee
Best Comparable – Donovan Smith, Penn State
Notes – Draft Media is incredibly low on Darnell Wright, and him going to the Jets at 13 is my favorite low-key selection.
No. 14 – New England Patriots – Tyree Wilson, EDGE – Texas Tech
Best Comparable – Alex Okafor, Texas
Factoid – Tyree Wilson will become the first Texas Tech Defensive Lineman taken in Round 1, since 1983 when Gabriel Rivera was taken by the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 21 overall.
No. 15 – Green Bay Packers – Will McDonald, EDGE – Iowa State
Best Comparable – Randy Gregory, Nebraska
Factoid – General Manager Brian Gutekunst was elevated from Scout to Director of College Scouting in 2012 for the Gren Bay Packers, in 2018 he was elevated to General Manager. Since 2012, Green Bay has used 11 of 12 Round 1 selections on Defense.
No. 16 – Washington Commanders – Peter Skoronski, OL – Northwestern
Best Comparable – Alex Leatherwood, Alabama
Factoid – Before Rashawn Slater in 2021, Northwestern hadn’t had an offensive lineman drafted in the first round since Chris Hinton in 1983. Skoronski and Slater would be the only two Wildcats drafted in Round 1 over the last 40 years.
No. 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Christian Gonzalez, CB – Oregon
Best Comparable – Marshon Lattimore, Ohio State
Factoid – Both of Christian Gonzalez‘s sisters are on the Columbian national track team, and Melissa is married to NFL quarterback David Blough.
No. 18 – Detroit Lions – Joey Porter Jr, CB – Penn State
Best Comparable – A.J. Terrell, Clemson
Factoid – Penn State is it has never had a defensive back drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.
No. 19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Broderick Jones, OT – Georgia
Best Comparable – D.J. Humphries, Florida
Broderick Jones Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
No. 20 – Seattle Seahawks – Quentin Johnston, WR – TCU
Best Comparable – Alec Pierce, Cincinnati
Factoid – Since 2016, TCU has had two wide receivers taken in Round 1. Josh Doctson went No. 22 overall in 2016, and Jalen Reagor went No. 21 overall in 2020.
No. 21 – Los Angeles Chargers – Devon Witherspoon, CB – Illinois
Best Comparable – Adoree Jackson, USC
Factoid – Witherspoon is one of three Illinois defensive backs projected to be drafted on the first two days of the 2023 NFL Draft.
No. 22 – Baltimore Ravens – Deonte Banks, CB – Maryland
Best Comparable – Ronald Darby, Florida State
No. 23 – *Houston Texans(via MIN) – Hendon Hooker, QB – Tennessee
Best Comparable – Geno Smith, West Virginia
Factoid – Peyton Manning 1998 is the last Tennessee Quarterback to be drafted before Round 5 of the NFL Draft.
Trade – Houston gives No. 33, 73, and 188 Overall in 2023 for Minnesota’s No. 23 Overall Pick.
No. 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Branch, S – Alabama
Best Comparable – Jaquan Brisker, Penn State
Notes – The Jacksonville Jaguars moved on from C.J. Henderson, and have recently released Shaquill Griffin. They need bodies, but not only bodies, they need Talent at the Cornerback position. Branch can play hybrid, as the best safety in the draft with the ability to play outside and inside.
No. 25 – New York Giants – Darius Rush, CB – South Carolina
Best Comparable – William Jackson, Houston
Factoid – Rush transitioned from WR to DB midway through the 2019 season, 21 starts later he may land in Round 1 of the NFL Draft.
No. 26 – Dallas Cowboys – Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE – Kansas State
Best Comparable – Everson Griffen, Texas
Today, we asked 3 Big 12 offensive tackles which player they faced in an individual matchup that was their biggest problem in 2022. It was not multiple choice. They could name any player they wanted.
Felix Anudike-Uzomah: 3
Tyree Wilson: 0🤷♂️
— RosterWatch (@RosterWatch) March 5, 2023
No. 27 – Buffalo Bills – Cody Mauch, OL – North Dakota State
Best Comparable – Ali Marpet, Hobart
Factoid – Cody Mauch played all 5 offensive line positions at the 2023 Reeces Senior Bowl to show versatility, he also transitioned from Tight End as a Freshman at NDSU.
No. 28 – Cincinnati Bengals – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB – Alabama
Best Comparable – C.J. Spiller, Clemson
Factoid – Alabama has 41 Running Backs drafted all-time, Jahmyr Gibbs would be the fifth since 2011 and third since 2019.
No. 29 – New Orleans Saints(via DEN via SF) – Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL – Northwestern
Best Comparable – Ed Oliver, Houston
Notes – Multiple sources inside organizations, prefer Adebawore to Calijah Kancey… take that for what you will.
No. 30 – Philadelphia Eagles – Jordan Addison, WR – USC
Best Comparable – Diontae Johnson, Toledo
Factoid – Addison played with the first Quarterback drafted in 2022 (Kenny Pickett), and potentially the first Quarterback drafted in 2024 (Caleb Williams), in a matter of two seasons.
No. 31 – Kansas City Chiefs – Anton Harrison, OT – Oklahoma
Best Comparable – Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
Round 2 (Pick 32-63)
No. 32 – Pittsburgh Steelers(via CHI) – Trenton Simpson, LB – Clemson
Best Comparable – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame
No. 33 – *Minnesota Vikings(via HOU) – Zay Flowers, WR – Boston College
Best Comparable – Jahan Dotson, Penn State
No. 34 – Arizona Cardinals – Steve Avila, OL – TCU
Best Comparable – Cam Robinson, Alabama
No. 35 – Indianapolis Colts – O’Cyrus Torrence, OL – Florida
Best Comparable – Mike Iupati, Idaho
No. 36 – Los Angeles Rams – Cam Smith, CB – South Carolina
Best Comparable – Sauce Gardner, Cincinnati
No. 37 – Seattle Seahawks(via DEN) – Bryan Bresee, DL – Clemson
Best Comparable – Kevin Williams, Oklahoma State
No. 38 – Las Vegas Raiders – Tyrique Stevenson, CB – Miami (FL)
Best Comparable – Noah Igbinoghene, Auburn
No. 39 – Carolina Panthers – Dalton Kincaid, TE – Utah
Best Comparable – Isaiah Likely, Coastal Carolina
No. 40 – New Orleans Saints – Emmanuel Forbes, CB – Mississippi State
Best Comparable – Demarcus Van Dyke, Miami
No. 41 – Tennessee Titans – Jack Campbell, LB – Iowa
Best Comparable – Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State
No. 42 – *Green Bay Packers(via NYJ) – Michael Mayer, TE – Notre Dame
Best Comparable – Zach Ertz, Stanford
Trade – The move everyone has been waiting for, Aaron Rodgers goes to the Jets for No. 42 overall and a conditional 2024 selection.
No. 43 – New York Jets – Jalin Hyatt, WR – Tennessee
Best Comparable – Dyami Brown, North Carolina
No. 44 – Atlanta Falcons – Calijah Kancey, DL – Pittsburgh
Best Comparable – Grady Jarrett, Clemson
No. 45 – Green Bay Packers – Matthew Bergeron, OT – Syracuse
Best Comparable – Christian Darrisaw, Syracuse
No. 46 – New England Patriots – Drew Sanders, LB – Arkansas
Best Comparable – Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech
No. 47 – Washington Commanders – Julius Brents, CB – Kansas State
Best Comparable – Byron Jones, Connecticut
No. 48 – Detroit Lions – Josh Downs, WR – North Carolina
Best Comparable – Wan’Dale Robinson, Kentucky
No. 49 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Dawand Jones, OT – Ohio State
Best Comparable – Orlando Brown, Oklahoma
No. 50 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Kelee Ringo, CB – Georgia
Best Comparable – Dee Milliner, Alabama
No. 51 – Miami Dolphins – Zach Charbonnet, RB – UCLA
Best Comparable – Demarco Murray, Oklahoma
Zach Charbonnet Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
No. 52 – Seattle Seahawks – B.J. Ojulari, EDGE – LSU
Best Comparable – Kwity Paye, Michigan
No. 53 – Chicago Bears(via BAL) – Cedric Tillman, WR – Tennessee
Best Comparable – Zach Pascal, Old Dominion
No. 54 – Los Angeles Chargers – Rashee Rice, WR – SMU
Best Comparable – Terrace Marshall, LSU
No. 55 – Detroit Lions(via MIN) – Keion White, EDGE – Georgia Tech
Best Comparable – Travon Walker, Georgia
No. 56 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Mazi Smith, DL – Michigan
Best Comparable – Dontari Poe, Memphis
No. 57 – New York Giants – Jonathan Mingo, WR – Ole Miss
Best Comparable – Allen Lazard, Iowa State
No. 58 – Dallas Cowboys – Kendre Miller, RB – TCU
Best Comparable – Javonte Williams, North Carolina
No. 59 – Buffalo Bills – Antonio Johnson, S – Texas A&M
Best Comparable – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Alabama
No. 60 – Cincinnati Bengals – D.J. Turner, CB – Michigan
Best Comparable – Donte Jackson, LSU
No. 61 – Chicago Bears (via CAR) – Keeanu Benton, DL – Wisconsin
Best Comparable – Sebastian Joseph-Day, Rutgers
No. 62 – Philadelphia Eagles – Roschon Johnson, RB – Texas
Best Comparable – Josh Jacobs, Alabama
No. 63 – Kansas City Chiefs – Marvin Mims, WR – Oklahoma
Best Comparable – Darnell Mooney, Tulane
Round 3 (Pick 64-102)
No. 64 – Chicago Bears – Darnell Washington, TE – Georgia
No. 65 – Houston Texans – Jartavius Martin, S – Illinois
No. 66 – Arizona Cardinals – Clark Phillips III, CB – Utah
No. 67 – Denver Broncos (via IND) – Trey Palmer, WR – Nebraska
No. 68 – Denver Broncos – John Michael Schmitz, OL – Minnesota
No. 69 – Los Angeles Rams – Joe Tippmann, OL – Wisconsin
No. 70 – Las Vegas Raiders – J.L. Skinner, S – Boise State
No. 71 – New Orleans Saints – Kayshon Boutte, WR – LSU
No. 72 – Tennessee Titans – Jaelyn Duncan, OL – Maryland
No. 73 – Minnesota Vikings (via HOU) – Isaiah Foskey, DL – Notre Dame
No. 74 – Cleveland Browns – Gervon Dexter, DL – Florida
No. 75 – Atlanta Falcons – Derick Hall, EDGE – Auburn
No. 76 – New England Patriots (via CAR) – Devon Achane, RB – Texas A&M
No. 77 – Los Angeles Rams – Michael Wilson, WR – Stanford
No. 78 – Miami Dolphins(via GB) – Sam LaPorta, TE – Iowa (Proj. Trade)
No. 79 – Indianapolis Colts (via WAS) – Wanya Morris, OT – Oklahoma
No. 80 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Jayden Reed, WR – Michigan State
No. 81 – Detroit Lions – Luke Musgrave, TE – Oregon State
No. 82 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tuli Tuipulotu, DL – USC
No. 83 – Seattle Seahawks – Kyu Blu Kelly, CB – Stanford
No. 84 – Green Bay Packers – A.T. Perry, WR – Wake Forest (Proj. Trade)
No. 85 – Los Angeles Chargers – Byron Young, EDGE – Tennessee
No. 86 – Baltimore Ravens – Tyler Scott, WR – Cincinnati
No. 87 – Minnesota Vikings – Chris Smith II, S – Georgia
No. 88 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Andrei Iosivas, WR – Princeton
No. 89 – New York Giants – Chandler Zavala, OL – North Carolina State
No. 90 – Dallas Cowboys – Nathaniel Dell, WR – Houston
Nathaniel Dell Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
No. 91 – Buffalo Bills – Israel Abanikanda, RB – Pittsburgh
No. 92 – Cincinnati Bengals – Tyler Steen, OT – Alabama
No. 93 – Carolina Panthers(via SF) – Xavier Hutchinson, WR – Iowa State
No. 94 – Philadelphia Eagles – Cory Trice, CB – Purdue
No. 95 – Kansas City Chiefs – Isaiah McGuire, DL – Missouri
No. 96 – *Arizona Cardinals – Dontayvion Wicks, WR – Virginia
No. 97 – *Washington Commanders – Zack Kuntz, TE – Old Dominion
No. 98 – *Cleveland Browns – YaYa Diaby, EDGE – Louisville
No. 99 – *San Francisco 49ers – Sydney Brown, S – Illinois
No. 100 – *Las Vegas Raiders – Luke Wypler, OL – Ohio State
No. 101 – *Los Angeles Chargers(via SF) – Tank Bigsby, RB – Auburn
Trade – The Chargers give up No. 125 and 2024 4th for San Francisco’s No. 101 overall selection.
No. 102 – *San Francisco 49ers – Zach Harrison, EDGE – Ohio State
No. 103 – *Chicago Bears – Terell Smith, CB – Minnesota
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