2022 NFL Draft Losers

NFL Draft

The NFL’s version of a music festival has come and gone. 262 names were called and even more dreams came true amidst a new year’s twist on the chaos that comes with the NFL Draft. This year was no exception. With every draft, however, come winners and losers based on the landing spots of these players and what picks these teams used to acquire them. There are many more, but there are eight 2022 NFL Draft Losers in particular who stand out above the rest.

Quarterback

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Are the Chicago Bears trying to get Justin Fields killed? Chicago’s 74.5-percent Protection Rate with Fields under center ranked No. 33 among qualified quarterbacks. Outside of Darnell Mooney, who has 142 receptions over his first two seasons, there are a total of 184 career receptions amongst the rest of Chicago’s wide receiver depth chart. 78 of those come from journeyman David Moore, who did not catch a pass in 2021. Former Kansas City Chief Byron Pringle makes up 67 of the remaining receptions. 

Justin Fields Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

The offensive line needs repairs and a jolt is needed from the wide receiver room. Surely, they addressed those needs in the draft, right? Well… kind of? The lone receiver they drafted was Velus Jones out of Tennessee, but he will be 25 (!) by the time mini-camp starts, and finished with twice as many kick return yards (2,973) than receiving yards (1,434) during his college career. Though they drafted a total of four offensive linemen, all were selected on Day 3. Surely, at least one will hit, but it is fair to expect none will play a heavy role in 2022. The Bears are bad and will likely have plenty of garbage time for Fields to exploit, but it’s hard to get excited about him for fantasy this season with how pedestrian his supporting cast is. At least Mooney, Cole Kmet, and David Montgomery will be fed extensively.

Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons

Malik Willis, Tennessee Titans

So much for the thought that these guys would get drafted on Day 1. Not only did Desmond Ridder and Malik Willis not get drafted in Round 1 of the 2022 draft; they fell to the third round. That’s important because NFL teams don’t often hand the keys to their franchise to third-round picks. Since 2010, there have been 15 quarterbacks that have been drafted in the third round. Among that 15, ten have made at least ten NFL starts at quarterback over the course of their entire NFL career: Colt McCoy, Terrelle Pryor, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Mike Glennon, Cody Kessler, Jacoby Brissett, CJ Beathard, Mason Rudolph, and Davis Mills. For comparison, 12 of the last 17 first-round quarterbacks made at least ten starts in their *rookie season.*

Of that group of third-rounders, only five have made at least 20 career starts: McCoy, Glennon, Wilson, Foles, and Brissett. Davis Mills is set to join that club this season, but that is still far from an illustrious club. Russell Wilson became a legitimate franchise quarterback for the team that drafted them, but the rest are all journeymen. If you want to make the list even shorter, only three of the 15 third-round quarterbacks started at least ten games as a rookie: Wilson (16), Glennon (13), and Mills (11). 

The Longest Odds

I don’t want to bury Desmond Ridder or Malik Willis‘ chances of ever becoming a quality starting quarterback. Franchise quarterbacks slip through the cracks all the time; just look at Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, and Kirk Cousins. It can happen for these guys if they’re good enough. But the odds of them even getting the chance are far from a sure thing. Ridder has a better chance of getting playing time this season than Willis because the Falcons are far less invested in Marcus Mariota than the Titans are in Ryan Tannehill and don’t project to be as competitive as the Titans.

But, unless Ridder really shows signs of being a legitimate quarterback, the Falcons could easily draft Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud in 2023 and don’t even need to bother developing Ridder. Willis is a project and needs time to hone his skills. He will do so in Tennessee, but how are we supposed to know if or when he’d even get the chance?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FefV0zYmSP4

As a result, Ridder and Willis’ dynasty stock took a major hit Friday Night. Again, I’m not saying they can’t ever rise to the top and become franchise quarterbacks, but their draft capital makes their journeys more difficult. Instead of becoming first-round picks in dynasty rookie drafts, Ridder and Willis are now second or third-round dart throws at best.

Running Backs

Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders

Antonio Gibson was persistently bothered by a rookie year turf toe injury during the entirety of his sophomore campaign. To this day, he has yet to undergo surgery to repair that toe, instead operating on a pain-tolerance threshold. It has affected his play. His yards per carry dipped from 4.7 as a rookie to 4.0 last year. And while he did finish with a 29.0-percent (No. 14) Juke Rate and a 4.7-percent (No. 18) Breakaway Run Rate, his 3.9 (No. 47) True Yards Per Carry shows he wasn’t the same efficient player he was as a rookie. This is important because he’ll need efficiency to continue producing fantasy numbers.

Antonio Gibson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Gibson has never been a true workhorse. Because of J.D. McKissic’s passing game usage, he only had a 62.6-percent (No. 15) Opportunity Share despite 258 (No. 4) carries. Despite missing six games at the end of 2021, McKissic out-targeted Gibson 53-52. In fact, Gibson had more targets (29) in the six games he played without McKissic than the 10 games he played with him (24). 

Now, it’s fair to wonder if Gibson’s stranglehold on Washington’s carries is in question. They picked Alabama thumper Brian Robinson in the third round of the Draft. It wasn’t as if Washington drafted a player they liked that just so happened to fall either; they brought Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, and Isaiah Spiller in for visits as well. It looks a dreaded three-headed committee is heading their way in 2022. Gibson is still the most talented of the bunch, but his dynasty managers have every right to be nervous. He’s someone I’m avoiding in redraft leagues unless he slides to the fourth-sixth round range.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs is in a similar boat as Antonio Gibson: a running back who has played through various knacks, has never been unleashed as a three-down back, and whose team added a quality running back in the draft. Jacobs has dealt with injuries to his shoulder, knee, and ankle over his first three seasons. Like Gibson, Jacobs only was truly unleashed as a receiver last season once his team’s pass-catching specialist back went down. In the six games Jacobs played without Kenyan Drake, Jacobs garnered 28 targets. In the 10 with Drake, Jacobs hauled in 36. Sound familiar?

Josh Jacobs Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

At least Jacobs has ownership of the carry totals. He registered 242 and 273 carries in his first two seasons. Though he fell to 217 last year, the next highest on the team was Drake at 63. But, the Raiders drafted Zamir White, a 6-0 214-pound thumper out of Georgia, who runs a 4.40 (96th-percentile) 40-yard dash, in the fourth round of the 2022 Draft. White has experience being in a rotation after splitting time with D’Andre Swift and James Cook while at Georgia. Is that another committee I hear?

That alone isn’t great for Jacobs, but it especially is concerning when it was announced over the weekend that the Raiders were declining his fifth-year team option. Remember, a new regime is taking over Las Vegas, and new head coach Josh McDaniels wasn’t there when the Raiders used a first-round pick on Jacobs. They don’t owe him anything. And McDaniels has repeatedly used multiple running backs during his time as the New England Patriots offensive coordinator. Jacobs is a talented player, but he’s not someone I’d want on my fantasy teams this year.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles

It’s hard to call anyone who guaranteed themselves at least $57 million and can earn up to $100 million a ‘loser,’ but it just goes to show stupid and poorly we frame these conversations sometimes. Congratulations first and foremost to A.J. Brown for receiving and signing a contract that valued how exceptional he is as an outstanding football player. He deserves every penny heading in his direction. For fantasy purposes, however, his landing spot left room to be desired for a multitude of reasons.

Is Hurts the guy?

That’s mostly because of how the Philadelphia Eagles manage their offense. I happen to like Jalen Hurts and really like how the Eagles are building their offense to make sure he proves he can be their quarterback of the future. But, it is fair to ask how good an actual passer he is at the quarterback position. Last season, he managed a 65.5 (No. 29) True Passer Rating, 7.4 (No. 26) Accuracy Rating, and a 66.9-percent (No. 31) True Completion Percentage. Ryan Tannehill isn’t a world-beater, but he bested Hurts in all of these passing statistics handily, and many others.

Now, Hurts does push the ball downfield well and often, which fits with A.J. Brown‘s game. He did average 7.3 (No. 15) Yards Per Attempt and 9.0 (No. 3) Air Yards Per Attempt; Tannehill finished No. 19 and No. 25 in these categories. Maybe Brown will elevate Hurts’ game further to new heights and render this skepticism moot, but this new situation isn’t ideal.

Everybody Eats (A Small Pie)

To make matters worse, the pass-game pie is much smaller in Philadelphia than in Tennessee. The Titans threw the ball 535 times last season; Philadelphia did so 494 times. In Jalen Hurts’ 18 starts where he played the majority of a game or all of it, he’s thrown the ball 545 times. That would’ve finished No. 22 in the NFL last season in a year where teams played 17 games.

Also, Devonta Smith is an Eagle as well. So is Dallas Goedert. They’re really good! Smith is already the best receiver A.J. Brown has ever played with. Smith brought in a 22.1-percent (No. 24) Target Share last season; Goedert hauled in an 18.6-percent (No. 8) split. I expect Brown to leapfrog both of them in usage, but they won’t go away either. In a normal offense, I wouldn’t worry about there being too many mouths to feed. Perhaps Brown’s arrival convinces Hurts and the Eagles coaching staff to let it fly all over the field and more often. But in a low-volume passing offense with a quarterback who is still improving as a passer, loves to run, and has other very capable pass-catchers to feed as well, it’s fair to wonder.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ESRlza8Dz8

Look, Brown is a great player. He deserves every penny of his new deal, will continue to be a great player on the gridiron, and will be heard from for fantasy. He still has WR1 upside. But it is going to be harder to tap into that upside as currently constituted in Philadelphia than it was when he was in Tennessee.

Justyn Ross, Kansas City Chiefs

Justyn Ross racked up 1,000 yards as a true freshman. 301 of those came in two College Football Playoff games en route to a national championship. He led his team in receiving yards as a true freshman despite sharing the field with pro receivers Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, and Amari Rodgers. 

Despite all of this, Ross went undrafted. Surely, this was mostly due to the congenital fusion procedure done on his spine before his junior season than his play on the field. I totally understand NFL teams shying away from a prospect for medical concerns, but there are plenty of examples of teams taking shots on players who fell in the draft because of compromised health. It would be one thing if Ross came back and wasn’t the same player, but that wasn’t the case. He was still very good this year! He averaged 2.48 yards per route run, per Bruce Matson of Rotoballer, in an anemic offense with a quarterback incapable of getting him the ball. The film doesn’t lie either. 

I just feel terrible for Ross. He’s as talented as any receiver drafted in the first two days of the draft and probably better than a lot of them. Even if someone gives him a shot, there are much more undrafted players who flail out than those who make it big. Teams don’t owe those guys anything. Hopefully, someone does give him a chance and bets on his immense talent.

UPDATE: Luckily, the football gods listened and rewarded Ross with the chance to catch passes from Patrick Mahomes.

Bo Melton, Seattle Seahawks

At least Bo Melton did get drafted, but in this case, I wish he hadn’t. Or at least got drafted by the team he went to. Or got drafted by them earlier than the seventh round. Bo Melton‘s drop was nearly as puzzling as Justyn Ross‘. Despite 4.34 (97th-percentile) speed at 5-11 and 189-pounds, a 39.6-percent (81st-percentile) College Dominator Rating, and a 31.3-percent (93rd-percentile) College Target Share, Melton didn’t get drafted until the 229th overall pick by the Seattle Seahawks. No big deal. he just has to fight with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant (assuming he beats out last year’s second-round pick D’Wayne Eskridge and established veteran Freddie Swain) for targets on a team that threw the ball the second-fewest times in the NFL.

Oh, and that was with Russell Wilson. Not Drew Lock or Geno Smith, the Seahawks’ current quarterback options.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEFVhgK7DG8

I, like many, like Melton as a prospect. I hope he has a long, productive, wealthy NFL career. But between landing spot and draft capital, he might as well have been shipped to a graveyard for fantasy purposes.