The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score. The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each player’s Value Score to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.
We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards Value Plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.
Paying Up
Brandin Cooks – DK: $6,000
Air Yards Value Score: 100
Air Yards: 660 (No. 10 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 49.5-percent (No. 1)
Unrealized Air Yards: 274 (No. 16)
Brandin Cooks remains the top value play of the week, a title he has held since week four. Cooks bounced back last week finishing as the WR18 on the week posting nine receptions for 89 yards on 13 targets. He saw 147 Air Yards last week and regained the league lead in Air Yards Share. At $6,000 on DraftKings, Cooks remains a value and is a recommended play in all formats.
Ja’Marr Chase – DK: $6,200
Air Yards Value Score: 89.52
Air Yards: 611 (No. 11)
Air Yards Share: 49.5-percent (No. 2)
Unrealized Air Yards: 211 (No. 32)
Ja’Marr Chase snuck on the list last week but may be here to stay since he has yet to scored less than double-digit fantasy points in his career. Even with Tee Higgins back in the fold, Chase has a commanding lead in Air Yards since the second-year receiver ‘s return seeing 252 Air Yards compared to Higgins’ 95 Air Yards. Look for this trend to continue in Week 7 against the Ravens in a game where the Bengals will be forced to keep pace with Lamar Jackson’s offense. Chase remains a recommended play in all formats since he has a huge ceiling and reliable floor.
Top-10 Value List
No. 10) Bryan Edwards- DK: $4,100
Air Yards Value Score: 38.35
Air Yards: 415 (No. 35)
Air Yards Share: 20.6-percent (No. 57)
Unrealized Air Yards: 217 (No. 27)
Bryan Edwards remains an ancillary downfield target for an underappreciated Raiders offense. He is top 10 in the league in Average Target Distance (No. 6), Yards Per Target (No. 8), and Yards Per Reception (No. 5). However, he has thus far shown only a five-target per game ceiling, which makes him extremely hard to trust as anything more than a cost-saving tournament dart-throw.
Hello on this beautiful Monday morning.
I wanted to remind you that Bryan Edwards made this catch yesterday, in case you forgot or hadn’t been told yet.
Have a great day 😁pic.twitter.com/aZPA871MOu
— Neal Maligno (@ClockDodgers) October 18, 2021
No. 9) Nelson Agholor – DK: $5,000
Air Yards Value Score: 43.30
Air Yards: 370 (No. 44)
Air Yards Share: 23.6-percent (No. 50)
Unrealized Air Yards: 189 (No. 40)
Nelson Agholor saw only three targets in Week 6. This was in large part due to the Patriots attempting a season-low 21 pass attempts. The Patriots offense has skewed more run heavy the past two weeks. The trend will likely continue against a Jets defense that has been extremely generous to opposing running games. In fact, when the Patriots last played the Jets in week two, Agholor saw only three targets and a season-low 20 Air Yards. Despite his presence on the top 10-value list, play him at your own risk.
No. 8) Darnell Mooney – DK: $5,000
Air Yards Value Score: 48.27
Air Yards: 370 (No. 44)
Air Yards Share: 32.7-percent (No. 28)
Unrealized Air Yards: 121 (No. 61)
It took six weeks of football for Darnell Mooney to fall behind teammate Allen Robinson in Air Yards on the season. However, the second-year receiver still leads the Bears in targets with 36. It is hard to fathom that this will continue past week seven with both Bears slotted to face Tampa Bay’s soft secondary.
With Antonio Brown and Gronk OUT, Brady-Evans-Godwin now has a 83% chance of taking down the Milly Maker this weekend according to my conservative projections
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) October 22, 2021
Priced only $100 less than Robinson, Mooney can save you some money as a run back option if your stacking Bucs, however I would rather pay the extra $100 for Robinson if it fits in the budget.
No. 7) Jakobi Meyers – DK: $5,000
Air Yards Value Score: 51.94
Air Yards: 485 (No. 25)
Air Yards Share: 30.9-percent (No. 32)
Unrealized Air Yards: 235 (No. 23)
Jakobi Meyers leads the Patriots in targets and Air Yards. Despite playing a season low 60-percent of snaps in Week 6, Meyers still hauled in five receptions for 44 yards; good for 11.4 fantasy points. Still scoreless on the year, it is unlikely Meyers finds the end-zone in Week 7 with the Patriots likely employing a run-heavy attack against the Jets. Regardless, he has a high floor based on his target volume and is a preferred cash game option.
No. 6) Allen Robinson – DK: $5,100
Air Yards Value Score: 53.72
Air Yards: 411 (No. 37)
Air Yards Share: 36.3-percent (No. 18)
Unrealized Air Yards: 242 (No. 21)
Allen Robinson averages only 8.4 (No. 66) Fantasy Points Per Game. However, things appear to be trending up for the Bears WR1 since he is coming off a Week 6 performance where he saw a season-high 171 Air Yards. He is now seeing more Air Yards on the season than Darnell Mooney. With Robinson set to square off a Tampa Bay defense that is exploitable through the air, he makes for the preferred runback option for any lineup with a Buccaneers stack and is a fine tournament play.
No. 5) Robby Anderson – DK: $4,800
Air Yards Value Score: 53.78
Air Yards: 498 (No. 23)
Air Yards Share: 28.2-percent (No. 41)
Unrealized Air Yards: 359 (No. 5)
Robby Anderson has been provided multiple opportunities to grease his squeaky wheel the past three weeks. He has seen at least seven targets per game since Week 4 and last week played a similar role to what he had last season as a low ADOT route runner.
Robby Anderson has a 24% target share over last three games.
Carolina offense condensing to D.J. Moore and Anderson — which makes sense.
Drops and uncatchable targets will fade.
Marshall left last week early with a concussion, but trend started before that.
Big games coming.
— Context Matters (@dwainmcfarland) October 22, 2021
Anderson saw only 74 Air Yards compared to D.J. Moore‘s 222 Air Yards last week despite only seeing two less targets than Moore. This opportunity might continue until Anderson produces or it may be to late with Matt Rhule suggesting he wants to run the ball more than he already is. He makes for a nice contrarian tournament play in the event the opportunities continue this week.
No. 4) Corey Davis – DK: $5,200
Air Yards Value Score: 36.04
Air Yards: 471 (No. 28)
Air Yards Share: 33.3-percent (No. 27)
Unrealized Air Yards: 244 (No. 20)
Hopefully the Jets and Corey Davis utilized the bye week discover a way to create a functional offense. Davis remains the Jets go-to receiver having seen 100 Air Yards or more in four of five games. Even against a Patriots secondary that has looked exploitable, Davis is best reserved for cash lineups until Zach Wilson shows that he can be a competent NFL quarterback.
No. 3) DeVante Parker- DK: $5,000
Air Yards Value Score: 58.58
Air Yards: 412 (No. 36)
Air Yards Share: 38.7-percent (No. 12)
Unrealized Air Yards: 205 (No. 36)
DeVante Parker will likely return this week from a hamstring strain that forced him to miss the past two weeks. Prior to his injury Parker saw back to back games with over 100 Air Yards. He has failed to see less than 80 Air Yards a game this season.
DeVante Parker has tied his previous career high of 8.0 targets per game.
He’s top-25 in the league amongst wide receivers with a minimum 4 games played. pic.twitter.com/U4sUn548u0
— Fragile Geno Smith Fan (@AnOutragedJew) October 21, 2021
Facing off against an exploitable Falcons secondary this week, Parker makes for an intriguing play in all formats.
No. 2) Henry Ruggs – DK: $5,000
Air Yards Value Score: 59.76
Air Yards: 600 (No. 13)
Air Yards Share: 29.8-percent (No. 35)
Unrealized Air Yards: 250 (No. 19)
Henry Ruggs boomed last week catching three passes on four targets for 97 yards and a touchdown. He remains a highly volatile fantasy producer as a result of his 18.8 (No. 2) Average Target Distance. However, he remains the preferred Raiders receiver to roster in DFS and should find his way onto some tournament lineups every week regardless of matchup.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaJGYNIHXx4&ab_channel=PlayerProfilerFantasyFootballwithThePodfather
No. 1) Devonta Smith – DK: $5.400
Air Yards Value Score: 85.34
Air Yards: 590 (No. 15)
Air Yards Share: 42.5-percent (No. 7)
Unrealized Air Yards: 336 (No. 7)
Devonta Smith disappointed in an island game last week, posting only 5.1 fantasy points in what was perceived to be a smash spot against Tampa Bay. Regardless, he still led the Eagles in Air Yards on the week and is the only Eagles receiver to post over 100 Air Yards in a week on the season. Recency bias and matchup makes Smith a great contrarian play this week against a Raiders secondary that has limited fantasy points for receivers. He is the top value play on the week and a must-start in tournament lineups.
