Week 2’s MNF game pits division rival Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers against one another. Both teams will look to avoid an 0-2 start to their season. Will the Lions shock the public and win in Lambeau? Or should Packers fans R-E-L-A-X and know that their team will get back on course?
Like last week, the layout for this article will be broken into multiple parts. First, I’ll go over relevant Vegas Trends. Then, I’ll cover each team’s trends and matchups. Next, I’ll share a Cliff Notes version of my article. And finally, I’ll conclude with the Cap-tain’s Conclusion and prediction.
Vegas Trends
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of DET’s last 11 games.
- DET is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
- DET is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against GB.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of GB’s last 6 games played in September.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of GB’s last 5 games against DET.
- GB is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against NFC North opponents.
Detroit Lions
Oh, noodle-arm Jared Goff. Don’t be fooled by his 344 (No. 8) Air Yards. He finished Week 1 with 146 (No. 17) Completed Air Yards and 6.0 (No. 27) Air Yards Per Attempt. That’s right on par with his 6.3 (No. 34) Air Yards Per Attempt in 2020.
Week 1 proved that D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams can co-exist. Both running backs saw top-10 Weighted Opportunities and combined for 36.4-percent of the Target Share. Hopefully, you didn’t fade Swift in your drafts. He saw a 70.7-percent (No. 11) Snap Share and his 46 Routes Run were the most among RBs in Week 1.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eualUW7LZko
Can you name the starting wide receivers for the Detroit Lions? No. That’s okay, Goff can’t either. Kalif Raymond is the No. 1 wide receiver for the Lions. Sure, he logged 44 (No. 12) Routes Run last week. But with a 6.3-percent (No. 90) Hog Rate and 13.3 (No. 23) Average Target Distance, he’s a decoy deep-threat.
Raymond’s role is to keep defenses honest so that Swift and T.J. Hockenson can handle the pass game work. The weak link in the Packers secondary is Kevin King. Insert collective groan from Packers fans. If Raymond can match up with him, he can utilize his 4.39 (95th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash to score a long touchdown like Deonte Harris did last week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=115tJ6dYlp8
Hockenson’s usage in Week 1 was EXACTLY what we wanted to see. He led tight ends in Slot Snaps (39) leading to 10 (No. 2) targets. As odd as it sounds, this is Goff’s Cooper Kupp. Over the past two seasons, Kupp finished top-20 in Hog Rate and top-24 in Red Zone Targets while seeing 545 (No. 4) and 442 (No. 11) Slot Snaps in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Green Bay Packers
Week 1 was a train wreck for the Packers and, quite frankly, there’s nothing that can be applied to the Packers for this matchup. The concern for Aaron Rodgers is the Game Script. Without rushing upside and low expectation of this game becoming a shootout, Rodgers projects as a low-end QB1.
Last season, Aaron Jones erupted for 45.6 (No. 1) fantasy points in Week 2. However, he’s only exceeded 75 yards from scrimmage one other time against Detroit in his career. In fact, outside of his Week 2 performance last season, he’s never scored a touchdown against Detroit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNP5kcl4NWA
A question left unanswered last week is how much, if any, Jones’ Snap Share grows with the departure of Jamaal Williams. Jones has seen a Snap Share under 63-percent in 2019 and 2020. Will it go up or will A.J. Dillon assume a consistent role in the Packers’ offense?
Jeff Okudah ruptured his Achilles last week, leaving the Lions without any cornerbacks in the top-80 of the Cornerback Rankings. Davante Adams‘ 19.4-percent (No. 19) Hog Rate mirrored his 2020 rate (19.9-percent). He’s finished as a top-10 wide receiver in three of his last four weekly matchups with the Lions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Rga-Cx9JdE
He’s not the only receiver to start this week though. As mentioned in my Week 2 WR-CB Matchups article, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a START this week. The last time he played Detroit he finished as a top-12 WR with 20.5 fantasy points.
Valdes-Scantling’s secured a 26.7-percent Hog Rate and was Rodgers’ deep threat option. Follow the Air Yards. Last week, he finished with 130 (No. 3) Unrealized Air Yards. A weak secondary, Unrealized Air Yards, and a high Implied Vegas Points (29.8) is a recipe for a big week. Somebody outside of Adams and Jones will score fantasy points.
Robert Tonyan, similar to most mid- and low-tier fantasy tight ends, is touchdown-dependent. Last season, he finished outside the top-24 in targets, Air Yards, and Target Share. His 11 touchdowns led tight ends and contributed 37.5-percent of his fantasy points. There’ll be plenty of red-zone trips for the Packers for him to capitalize.
Cliff Notes
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Jared Goff is the same guy he was last year.
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Goff loves his slot receiver and his name is T.J. Hockenson.
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D’Andre Swift has a high upside role in DET, even with Jamaal Williams involved.
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Week 1 didn’t tell us anything about the Packers.
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Historically, Aaron Jones has not had good games against DET.
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Desperate for a FLEX play? Try Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Cap-tain’s Conclusion
Divisional games are not my favorite types of games to bet on. Why? Because these teams are better prepared to play each other than they would be against teams they see less frequently. Detroit is a trap. Ask anyone that took the 49ers’ spread last week.
Green Bay’s ATS trend against their division rivals implies that the game may be closer than the 11.5 point spread. I would agree with that trend along with the OVER on the 48.5 point game total.
I see the Packers scoring a little bit below their 29.8 Implied Vegas Points. The Packers will lean on the ground game after jumping out to an early two-score lead on the Lions. Meanwhile, the Lions, coming off of a 33-point outing against San Francisco score a garbage-time touchdown to make the game seem closer than it was.
Prediction: Packers 28-24
