Entering the fantasy playoffs, the Buy Highs and Sell Lows will act as something of the deepest starts and saddest sits. The Buy Highs are players who are on the fringe of being roster-worthy, but who the advanced data and metrics actually show is worth starting. On the other hand, Sell Lows will be players who may have some name-brand value that it’s time to move on from and sit or cut outright.
Buy High
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
Cole Kmet wasn’t a mind-bending prospect that was expected to take the league by storm as a rookie and he certainly didn’t. Up until Week 10, he hadn’t logged a game with more than two targets. However, since Week 10, Kmet has stolen the starting tight end job from Jimmy Graham. Over that span, he’s been targeted 13 times and run 80 routes. His four most used games by route-total have come in his past four, as have his four highest Snap Shares. There’s been a changing of the guard for a team averaging 42.7 (No. 4) Team Pass Plays per Game, and that may translate to Kmet emerging as a viable streaming option in the fantasy playoffs.
Check out Cole Kmet on PlayerProfiler’s New DYNASTY DELUXE Rankings:
Graham is currently No. 11 among qualified tight ends with 62 Targets and No. 16 with 391 Air Yards, but he only averages 8.5 (No. 20) Fantasy Points per Game. His 5.4 (No. 33) Yards per Target and 8.8 (No. 34) Yards per Reception seem to have something to do with that. His Fantasy Points per Game lag behind his volume despite seeing 16 (No. 2) Red Zone Targets. The role he plays is clearly a valuable one for a tight end who isn’t the better part of a decade past his prime. On a limited sample, Kmet’s 6.2 Yards per Target, 10.1 Yards per Reception, and +19.5-percent Target Premium are all higher than Graham’s. Kmet may unlock the true potential of this role just in time to win fantasy championships.
Keke Coutee, WR, Houston Texans
Keke Coutee does just enough to check all of the boxes as a prospect and he plays on an offense posting the second-most passing yards per game. His profile is perfectly balanced, as all things should be.
Keke Coutee Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Based on his College Dominator Rating and College YPR, Coutee controlled an above-averaged amount of Texas Tech’s offense based on an above-average level of efficiency on a per-catch basis. What he lacks in burst and Catch Radius, he makes up for with raw speed and agility. When called upon previously, he has produced admirably. He has six career games with more than five targets, averaging 80.8 receiving yards. Coutee is a good enough player in a perfect situation. Keep starting him as a WR3 going forward.
Sell Low
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
On the other end of the spectrum, Tee Higgins is a vastly superior player in a situation that will all but cripple his fantasy value. Brandon Allen will be throwing him passes to close out the year. Through two starts, Allen has shown nothing that would imply he can support a weekly WR3. On a minimum of 30 pass attempts, he looks like a middling backup:
- 63.2 (No. 42) True Passer Rating
- -22.00 (No. 41) EPA
- 4.3 (No. 46) Adjusted Yards per Attempt
Allen’s AY/A is one place ahead of Sam Darnold and his performance is perfectly comparable to Darnold. Even worse, Allen has a lower AY/A mark, meaning that he’s just as bad while being less aggressive. Higgins is the Denzel Mims to Allen’s slightly less aggressive Darnold. Do you want to play Mims with a less aggressive Darnold under center?
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Green Bay Packers
It was fun while it lasted with Marquez Valdes-Scantling but he’s been all but benched for Allen Lazard. Since Lazard returned in Week 11, Valdes-Scantling’s Routes Run and Snap Share have both fallen in consecutive weeks. He bottomed out at two targets and zero catches last week. MVS already had a comically low Target Rate, seeing a target on 15.4-percent of his routes run this season. That mark is No. 158 among qualified receivers. Most of the data feeding into that stat come from games where at least one of Lazard or Davante Adams were out. Both are fully healthy now and MVS because nothing more than waiver wire fodder in deep leagues.
