Welcome to Week 11’s set of Quarterback – Wide Receiver Stack recommendations. With ten weeks under our belts, we have a good base to draw on for pattern finding and sorting out the signal from the noise. As always, the goal of this piece is to use the advanced stats and metrics from PlayerProfiler to identify high-ceiling plays for daily fantasy football tournaments involving quarterbacks and wide receivers from the same team. Stacking those players increases the positive correlation in the scoring of our lineups. When the QB has a big day, it’s likely his WRs also had big days. That upside is what we’re looking to capture in order to produce upper-tier percentile outcomes in our lineups.
Week 10 Review
In a low scoring week, our recommendations struggled to differentiate. Kyler Murray, the stone chalk, and Josh Allen, also very popular, both had strong days. The other popular play, Jared Goff, underwhelmed against the porous Seattle defense. Our plays were outside the top 5 rostered QBs, but unfortunately none had strong outings.
Check out Jared Goff on PlayerProfiler’s New DYNASTY DELUXE Rankings:
The first was Russell Wilson. We advocated for fading the concern around the defensive matchup and chasing the high-scoring game environment. Wilson had some turnovers and a generally ineffective day, ending up under 13 DraftKings points. None of his receivers found much success, especially our recommended play D.K. Metcalf who only finished with 4.8 points.
Deshaun Watson and Brandin Cooks made up the second recommendation. We warned about weather concerns and they definitely played a role. Watson finished with his second-lowest attempt total of the year. Cooks tied Will Fuller for the most targets, but the efficiency was understandably lacking. Watson finished with 14 and Cooks under 10 points.
The final stack featured a budget option with Drew Lock and Jerry Jeudy going against the Raiders. Lock was dreadful in this game. He threw 47 times, which is great for fantasy, but only connected for 5.5 Yards per Attempt. Jeudy saw eight targets but only reeled in four for 68, which did lead Denver in receiving yards. Both ended up with around 11 points.
Week 11 Overview
This week is reminiscent of slates from the last few years rather than the last few weeks. Through byes, injuries, and games not on the main slate, we don’t have many of the elite QBs we’ve jammed in this season. Traditionally, we wouldn’t pay up for QB since scoring was so concentrated. With Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Russell Wilson scoring at such high rates this year, that changed in DFS. Fantasy gamers need Murray and his 40-point ceiling rather than saving a couple thousand dollars and hoping to get 18 points from Kirk Cousins.
With those players unavailable, it feels like a slate of old. Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers are still there if you want to go high end, and they are viable. No game has an over/under above 51 points, so we don’t get any obvious shootouts to rely on either. This week will be about picking the right cheap QB.
Carson Wentz & Jalen Reagor
We start with Carson Wentz and Jalen Reagor this week. Wentz has struggled this year behind a patchwork offensive line and a depleted set of skill position players. The Eagles are getting healthy though. Reagor, Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffery are back in action. Those upgrades make a big difference for both Wentz’s floor and ceiling.
He’ll have viable pass-catchers to go along with his unheralded rushing production. On the season, Wentz has carried the ball 41 times, good for No. 8 among qualified QBs. Where he is rushing is what really matters though. Wentz has 12 (No. 6) Red Zone Carries, which he’s converted into five (No. 3) rushing touchdowns.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6eQVuBJn88&ab_channel=ThePodfather
Reagor was one of the most exciting rookie WRs in this class. A freshman year breakout at TCU, he commanded an impressive 36.7-percent (73rd-percentile) College Dominator Rating with a different QB in each of his three seasons. These QBs were, to put it kindly, not NFL prospects. So many rookie WRs have popped in this class, and after dealing with some injuries, it’s time for Reagor to do the same. Enjoy the cost savings of the $4,300 price tag to fill out the rest of your roster.
Andy Dalton & Amari Cooper
Let’s stay in the NFC East for the next stack this week. The Cowboys make up another cheap option for single or double stacks to pair with Andy Dalton. We’re going with Amari Cooper but do recommend mixing in CeeDee Lamb and even Michael Gallup as well. Recency bias with Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert have deflated the prices of the Cowboys too low. With Dalton returning from the concussion and the COVID reserve list, he’ll be a tide to lift all ships.
We still haven’t seen much of Dalton this year, but his career performance tells us he’s a competent QB capable of supporting fantasy relevant pass-catchers. His $5,300 price tag ranks outside the top 20 QBs this week. As one of the cheapest options on the slate, playing in a dome, against a not particularly threatening defense, it may not feel great, but there is a lot to like about Dalton this week.
amari cooper is $5.4k on @draftkings this week. pic.twitter.com/klA1EM01ZE
— kyren williams punt return (@Fantasy_Mansion) November 17, 2020
At only $5,400, we’re pushing the button on Cooper this week as he projects to lead the Cowboys in targets. On the year, he’s averaged 9.2 (No. 8) targets per game. His 8.5 (No. 84) Average Target Distance shows he’s getting easy targets near the line of scrimmage which he can take and turn up field, evidenced by his 220 (No. 18) Yards after the Catch. That presents a solid combination of floor and ceiling for the dollar.
Justin Herbert & Keenan Allen
Finally, if you want to pay up, the best option this week comes from Los Angeles with Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen. The wonderful PlayerProfiler projections have Herbert as the highest projected point scorer among the QBs despite DraftKings pricing him at QB3. He has been phenomenal this year and his efficiency numbers are top of the line. His 0.56 Fantasy Points per Dropback, +26.5 Production Premium, and 106.2 True Passer Rating all rank No. 5 among qualified quarterbacks. He’s also adding value with his legs, ranking in the top 10 in carries, red zone carries, rush yards, and rushing touchdowns.
Justin Herbert Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Allen has been as reliable as they come in fantasy football this year. Outside of leaving Week 5 early with an injury, he’s never seen fewer than seven targets, while drawing double-digit targets in six games. That’s good for top three marks in both raw targets and Production Premium. As such an essential piece of the offense, Allen continues to see his price rise of DraftKings, but it has yet to catch up to his value. Don’t be afraid to Buy High on the Chargers this week.
