Unlocking the potential of weekly player volatility in daily fantasy football gives gamers a competitive edge. A key metric on PlayerProfiler, Weekly Volatility measures a player’s week-to-week fantasy point scoring oscillation. This article will track the most volatile wide receivers and provide insight on when to deploy them in large-field GPPs. Using matchup and usage data combined with advanced stats to pinpoint the best plays yields the best ROI from volatile players. The focus will be on those highly volatile players with cheap salaries and low projected ownership who make screaming plays with tournament winning upside.
Jefferson Displays Elite Efficiency and Versatility
Coming off a bye and carrying the fourth-highest Weekly Volatility score (14.1), Justin Jefferson offers a massive ceiling at low projected rostership. At first glance, the matchup against Green Bay looks tough. The Packers allow -5.01 (No. 26) fantasy points below the mean to opposing receivers, but while Adam Thielen draws the coverage of PlayerProfiler’s fifth-ranked cornerback in Jaire Alexander, Jefferson gets a more favorable matchup against Josh Jackson and his -14.6 Coverage Rating. In a divisional showdown with the chance for fireworks given the 51.5 over/under, it’s a potential smash spot for the rookie. Vegas favors the Packers by 6.5 points, so Minnesota figures to go pass-heavy despite Dalvin Cook‘s potential return.
https://youtu.be/ZUxVGynPpes
Jefferson profiles as a versatile player who beats defenses in myriad ways. He’s got 4.43 speed to burn defenders over the top, and his 355 Completed Air Yards rank No. 14 among qualified wide receivers. On a more granular level, Jefferson’s 9.9 Completed Air Yards Per Target rank No. 3 among players with at least 20 targets. He has also generated 182 (No. 11) Yards After Catch and a 66.7-percent (No. 8) Contested Catch Rate.
Further, the first-round pick from LSU displays elite efficiency metrics. Jefferson boasts the highest-ranked Production Premium (+57.8) among qualified receivers. The metric measures a player’s situation-agnostic efficiency and compares it to league average. It’s an impressive feat for the rookie, who also averages 3.16 (No. 2) Yards per Route Run. Before the team’s Week 7 bye, Jefferson torched the Falcons by catching 9-of-11 targets for 166 yards and two TDs, the best fantasy performance at the position. His $6,500 salary on DraftKings doesn’t reflect his potential for another blowup game, and his rostership projects to be lower than 10-percent.
Brown Boom Week Long Overdue
Hear that? It’s the predictive metrics screaming that a Marquise Brown boom week approaches. He’s drawn 16 (No. 2) Deep Targets, 668 (No. 9) Air Yards, and the difference between his 271 (No. 30) Completed Air Yards and 397 (No. 5) Unrealized Air Yards signals a favorable time to fly.
Facing a middle-of-the pack Pittsburgh secondary, Brown figures to line up against Steelers cornerback Steven Nelson, who has allowed five TDs while forcing one pass break-up. Nelson’s 4.49 (62nd-percentile) wheels present an opportunity for Hollywood to run circles around him. Speaking of getting burned, Nelson’s 5.3-percent (No. 67) Burn Rate makes Brown an even more enticing play.
Check out Marquise Brown on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
Hollywood hasn’t produced a script-worthy performance yet, but possesses a 30-point fantasy ceiling. That the sophomore field-stretcher has caught a single TD so far offers another data point that he’s primed to explode. His $6,100 salary comes in much lower than players with comparable upside and he’s projected under 10-percent rostership, making him a strong play.
Pulling the Ruggs Out From Underneath the Browns
Henry Ruggs has flashed game-breaking big-play ability this season, but hasn’t put it all together in the form of a breakout game. That changes this week. Ruggs faces a Browns secondary that hemorrhages fantasy points to wide receivers. Cleveland allows +13.63 fantasy points above the mean to the position, the second-highest mark in the league. Ruggs’ boom-bust volatility hasn’t peaked yet, evidenced by his modest 7.8 (No. 30) Weekly Volatility score. Still, gamers won’t want to miss out when he hits for 6-150-2 and melts faces on his way to winning tournaments. He oozes that potential this week because he’s back to full health. Ruggs ran a season-high 33 routes in Week 7 and also earned his highest Snap Share (78.3-percent) to date.
Henry Ruggs 2020 Efficiency Metrics
Ruggs has caught 8-of-14 targets for 212 yards, generating an eye-popping 26.5 yards per reception mark. That would rank first in the league if not for his unqualified low volume. For comparison, D.K. Metcalf averages 21.6 (No. 1) YPR. While Ruggs needs to see more than the 3.5 targets he averages per game to make the fireworks happen, his quarterback buys into the vertical passing attack. Derek Carr said recently that tossing the deep ball is “becoming who we are.”
Back in camp, Derek Carr would throw a deep pass to Henry Ruggs III. Then, he would take a shot to Bryan Edwards, and then uncork one to Nelson Agholor.
“We were like taking shot after shot after shot seeing which ones we liked for the season … https://t.co/StUNLsTcDu
— Vic Tafur (@VicTafur) October 29, 2020
While there’s still work to do, Carr averages almost one Deep Ball Attempt more per game than he did in 2019 (3.8 compared to 2.9) and he owns a 52.2-percent Deep Ball Completion Percentage. With a low salary ($4,700) and low projected rostership, he deserves consideration for main slate GPPs.
